Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction

Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction

Our Cardinals vs Dodgers prediction reveals an intriguing matchup. Despite the Dodgers’ favoritism, our MLB betting model highlights value on the Cardinals with a 38.89% probability, projecting them at +157 US odds. This suggests a closer contest than odds imply, making the Cardinals a valuable pick.

In this detailed analysis, we’re diving deep into the Cardinals vs Dodgers prediction for the game on Friday, March 29, 2024, featuring a pitching showdown between Zack Thompson and Bobby Miller at Dodger Stadium. This matchup is pivotal for bettors and fans alike, as both teams show strong potential this season. With the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers, we’ll explore everything from pitching stats to offensive matchups, concluding with our MLB betting model’s prediction.

Game Info & Betting Odds

  • Date: Friday, March 29, 2024
  • Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
  • Odds: Cardinals (3.08 Decimal; +208 US) | Dodgers (1.43 Decimal; -233 US)

Note: Odds are subject to change; ensure you check the latest MLB odds across various sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers: Thompson vs. Miller

Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction

Zack Thompson (St. Louis Cardinals)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 4.57
  • SIERA: 4.11
  • xFIP: 4.07
  • K/9: 9.13
  • BB/9: 2.78
  • WHIP: 1.32
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.1

Bobby Miller (Los Angeles Dodgers)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.76
  • SIERA: 3.93
  • xFIP: 3.75
  • K/9: 8.61
  • BB/9: 2.32
  • WHIP: 1.1
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.46
  • xERA: 3.4

Pitching & Bullpen Analysis

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When comparing the starting pitchers, Bobby Miller shows a stronger profile with a lower ERA, WHIP, and a more favorable SIERA and xFIP, suggesting his performance may be more sustainable. Miller’s ground ball/fly ball ratio also indicates a higher likelihood of limiting home runs and extra-base hits, especially critical in Dodger Stadium’s pitcher-friendly environment.

The bullpen comparison further tilts the scale in favor of the Dodgers, who rank 2nd in bullpen efficiency against the Cardinals’ 10th place. This could play a significant role in the later innings of the game, especially if the starters exit early.

Offensive Matchup

  • St. Louis Cardinals: Overall Rank 13 | vs. LHP Rank 3 | vs. RHP Rank 4
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Overall Rank 2 | vs. LHP Rank 8 | vs. RHP Rank 1

The offensive stats reveal the Dodgers’ dominance, especially against right-handed pitchers, making them particularly dangerous for Thompson. However, the Cardinals’ strong performance against lefties could challenge Miller, potentially narrowing the expected performance gap.

MLB Betting Model Prediction

  • St. Louis Cardinals (Zack Thompson): 38.89% Probability | Projected US Odds +157 | Decimal 2.57
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (Bobby Miller): 61.11% Probability | Projected US Odds -157 | Decimal 1.64

Despite the Dodgers’ advantages, our MLB betting model finds value in backing the Cardinals, suggesting a closer contest than the odds imply. The model’s recommendation aligns with Zack Thompson at +208, offering significant value.

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (Zack Thompson) +208
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 0.95

Conclusion for Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction

Our Cardinals vs Dodgers prediction leans towards a more competitive game than initially anticipated. While the Dodgers hold advantages in several key areas, the betting value lies with the Cardinals, backed by our model’s analysis. Always remember to shop for the best odds, and consider using sports betting models and courses to inform your strategies. Betting should be done responsibly, with a focus on data and model-based predictions rather than following picks blindly.

For further insights, detailed MLB picks, and betting strategies, make sure to check our MLB Picks page and explore our betting model on Google Sheets for creating your own projections.

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