Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a 63.96% probability to win against the St. Louis Cardinals. Projected odds favor the Diamondbacks at -177, making them a solid pick for this matchup. For detailed analysis and more picks, refer to our full Cardinals vs Diamondbacks prediction.

Introduction

As we look ahead to the MLB clash on Friday, April 12, 2024, the spotlight is on the upcoming Cardinals vs Diamondbacks prediction. This game pits the St. Louis Cardinals against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field, offering a fascinating pitching duel between Steven Matz and Brandon Pfaadt. Let’s dive into the specifics of the matchup, including starting pitchers, betting odds, and team performance to guide our predictions and betting insights.

Game Overview: St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Snapshot

  • Away Team (St. Louis Cardinals): Decimal Odds: 2.04 | US Odds: +104
  • Home Team (Arizona Diamondbacks): Decimal Odds: 1.87 | US Odds: -115

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always check multiple sportsbooks for the best MLB odds before placing bets.

Pitching Matchup Analysis: Steven Matz vs Brandon Pfaadt

  • Steven Matz (Cardinals) – LHP
  • ERA: 3.81
  • SIERA: 4.31
  • xFIP: 4.05
  • K/9: 8.06
  • BB/9: 2.72
  • WHIP: 1.35
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.33
  • Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks) – RHP
  • ERA: 5.63
  • SIERA: 4.06
  • xFIP: 4.18
  • K/9: 9.21
  • BB/9: 2.32
  • WHIP: 1.4
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.84

Comparative Insights

Steven Matz shows a more balanced control with a higher ground ball to fly ball ratio, indicating potentially fewer home runs allowed, critical at a hitter-friendly park like Chase Field. However, Brandon Pfaadt, despite a higher ERA, has demonstrated better strikeout capabilities which could prove pivotal against a struggling Cardinals batting lineup.

Team Performance and Historical Matchup

Bullpen Strength

  • St. Louis Cardinals Bullpen Rank: 3
  • Arizona Diamondbacks Bullpen Rank: 10

Offensive Matchup

  • St. Louis Cardinals: Overall Rank: 26 | Vs. LHP: 22 | Vs. RHP: 23
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Overall Rank: 9 | Vs. LHP: 4 | Vs. RHP: 14

The Diamondbacks have shown significantly better offensive prowess, especially against left-handed pitchers, which poses a tough challenge for Matz and the Cardinals’ defense.

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Prediction

MLB Betting Model Predictions

  • St. Louis Cardinals (Steven Matz): Probability 36.04% | Projected US Odds: +177 | Decimal Odds: 2.77
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt): Probability 63.96% | Projected US Odds: -177 | Decimal Odds: 1.56

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Moneyline: Arizona Diamondbacks -115
  • Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
  • Value: Good (Adjusted Kelly Criterion: 2.25)

Conclusion: Cardinals vs Diamondbacks Prediction

In conclusion, this Cardinals vs Diamondbacks prediction highlights a favorable setup for the Arizona Diamondbacks, especially with their offensive advantage and Pfaadt’s strikeout ability. While betting, ensure you shop for the best lines and consider using this analysis as a guide rather than a definitive directive. For those interested in making informed, analytical bets, consider accessing detailed betting models or engaging with sports betting courses to refine your strategy.


Remember to always bet responsibly and enjoy the game as part of the broader enjoyment of MLB baseball.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.