Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction

The MLB betting model favors the Brewers over the Cardinals on May 9, 2024, with a projected 57.46% probability and -135 odds. With a strong offense against right-handers and home-field advantage, Milwaukee is poised for victory. Back the Brewers’ moneyline for solid betting value in this **Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction**.

Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, May 9, 2024, all eyes will be on the starting pitchers, Lance Lynn for the Cardinals and Tobias Myers for the Brewers. This matchup at American Family Field promises to be a riveting clash between two NL Central rivals. Let’s analyze the odds, pitchers’ stats, bullpens, offenses, and a recommended MLB pick in this comprehensive Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • St. Louis Cardinals (Away): 2.10 (Decimal) / +110 (US)
  • Milwaukee Brewers (Home): 1.84 (Decimal) / -119 (US)

Odds are subject to change, so always check multiple sportsbooks for the best possible MLB odds.

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Starting Pitcher Breakdown

Lance Lynn (Cardinals)

  • Hand: Right-Handed
  • ERA: 3.28
  • SIERA: 4.42
  • xFIP: 4.49
  • K/9: 8.33
  • BB/9: 4.04
  • WHIP: 1.4
  • GB/FB: 0.96
  • xERA: 4.18

Lance Lynn has established himself as a reliable veteran. While his 3.28 ERA looks solid, his underlying advanced metrics like xFIP (4.49) and SIERA (4.42) indicate potential regression. His strikeout-to-walk ratio remains decent, but he will need to be wary of the Brewers’ powerful lineup.

Tobias Myers (Brewers)

  • Hand: Right-Handed
  • ERA: 6.23
  • SIERA: 4.54
  • xFIP: 4.66
  • K/9: 7.62
  • BB/9: 3.46
  • WHIP: 1.31
  • GB/FB: 0.68
  • xERA: 5.27

Myers’ 6.23 ERA is alarming, but his advanced metrics suggest that he has been slightly unlucky. His xFIP (4.66) and SIERA (4.54) point to better performance than the surface numbers show. However, he tends to allow fly balls, which could be dangerous against the Cardinals.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Cardinals Bullpen Rank: 4th
  • Brewers Bullpen Rank: 12th

The Cardinals possess one of the best bullpens in the league, while the Brewers have been respectable but not outstanding. This could give the Cardinals an advantage if the game remains close late.

Offensive Matchup

  • Cardinals Overall Rank: 25th
  • Cardinals vs LHP Rank: 27th
  • Cardinals vs RHP Rank: 15th
  • Brewers Overall Rank: 7th
  • Brewers vs LHP Rank: 28th
  • Brewers vs RHP Rank: 3rd

The Brewers’ offense is vastly superior, especially against right-handed pitchers like Lance Lynn. Their 3rd-place ranking against righties bodes well for their chances in this matchup.

Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability & Projection

  • St. Louis Cardinals (Lance Lynn): 42.53% Probability / +135 Projected Odds / 2.35 Decimal
  • Milwaukee Brewers (Tobias Myers): 57.46% Probability / -135 Projected Odds / 1.74 Decimal

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (Tobias Myers) – Moneyline
  • Odds: -119
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.68
  • Confidence: Solid Value

Our MLB betting model strongly favors the Brewers to win this matchup with their potent offense and home-field advantage.


In conclusion, the Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction shows the Brewers holding an edge due to their superior offense and model projection. However, never blindly follow any sports picks—always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and explore bonuses and promotions. To learn how to bet analytically like a pro, consider checking out sports betting models and courses.

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