Thursday, September 22, 2022

Petco Park, 4:10 PM ET

The Padres and Cardinals are set to square off on Thursday in what is sure to be an exciting matchup. The Cardinals come into the game with a record of 87-63, while the Padres have a record of 83-66.

This game is important for both baseball teams, as they are fighting for playoff positioning. The Cardinals are currently in first place in the NL Central, while the Padres are in second place in the NL West.

In the first two games of the series, the Padres beat the Cardinals by scores of 5-0 and 1-0. The Cardinals have not scored a run so far in the series, and they will be trying to avoid a sweep today. The Cardinals have struggled offensively in this series, and they will need to find a way to break through against the Padres’ pitching staff if they want to avoid being swept. Blake Snell allowed only 2 hits in 7 innings yesterday.

St Louis Cardinals Playoffs Situation

St Louis Cardinals have 9 more wins than Milwaukee Brewers who is trying to catch them, but there is still 13 games left. And the most important games will be a series between these two teams next week. Despite there is very small chance that Cardinals will finish first in their division, they still can not relax. There are still games to be played.

San Diego Padres Playoffs Situation

The San Diego Padres are in a precarious position at the moment. They are currently trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB Major League standings, and while they are still in contention for a wild card spot, they are facing stiff competition from the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers. Only two of these three teams will make the playoffs, so every game is critical at this point in the season.

After that series, they will head to Colorado to take on the Rockies before returning home to face the Dodgers. With so much on the line, every game counts for the Padres right now.

Betting odds

  • St Louis Cardinals +125
  • San Diego Padres -135
  • Over/Under Line 7.5

Online sports betting sites opened moneyline odds at around -130 and then the odds dropped quickly o -135 or even -140.

Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will start Joe Musgrove on the mound tonight, while the Cardinals will start Jack Flaherty.

Musgrove is 10-7 with a 3.16 ERA this season, while Flaherty is 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA. This will be Flaherty’s second start of the season, as he has only pitched 23 innings so far. He played only 141 innings since 2020.

If we compare both pitchers this season, Musgrove numbers are better. More strikeouts per 9 innings (9.00 strikeouts per nine vs 6.65 strikeouts from Flaherty). His other ERA pitching stats like xERA, xFIP and SIERA are also better:

Joe Musgrove: xERA 3.26, FiP 3.62, xFiP 3.43 and SIERA 3.41

Jack Flaherty: xERA 5.99, FiP 5.94, xFiP 5.86, SIERA 5.77

Jack Flaherty is not the same pitchers as he was in 2019. Despite he went 9-2 last season, his numbers were not that great. Strikeouts per nine decreased and ERA stats went up. Joe Musgrove on the other side is solid for the last two seasons and we know what we can expect.

I give pitching advantage to San Diego Padres here.


We have two teams with a good relievers. My major league bullpen ratings have Padres bullpen as the 1oth best in the league, while Cardinals hold 14th position in baseball.

Musgrove is going in average 6 innings per game. We can expect Padres bullpen late in the game. Flaherty on the other side averaged only 3.3 innings per game this season in 23 innings. I don’t see any big advantage late in the game, but the win might be decided in the first half of the game.

Hitting matchup

The Cardinals have averaged 4.86 runs per game, while the Padres have averaged 4.42 runs per game. The Cardinals have a higher batting average, on-base percentage, and home runs than the Padres.

However, in the last 10 games Cardinals have struggled and they are scoring only 2.66 runs per game, while Padres score 3.58.

Cardinals are missing Tyler O’Neill, who has third most RBI in his team. He was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain on Saturday. He won’t be available to help his team to win this game.

I give an advantage to St Louis Cardinals. After all, despite they miss o’Neill, they still have players like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who can turn the game at any point.

MLB betting model predictions

MLB betting model predictions

Based on my baseball betting model and projected betting odds, I give San Diego Padres 64.95% of chance in this game.

Which means, that my fair betting moneyline odds on padres are -185 in this game. Based on my sports betting predictions related to online sports betting odds on the market, San Diego Padres are little bit underrated. In other words current Padres moneyline odds show value.

My projected total runs for this game is set at 9.07, which shows that after low scoring game yesterday, we could see an over in this game. Especially if one of the best hitting teams wakes up after two scoreless games.

Interesting trends

When it comes to making predictions about MLB games, it’s important to keep in mind that betting trends are not the best indicator of what will happen. They have very little or none predictive power and should be taken with caution. However, they can be useful in seeing some interesting angles.

  • St Louis Cardinals are 0-7 in the last 7 games in San Diego.
  • St Louis Cardinals vs Joe Musgrove batting average 0.326
  • San Diego Padres won 9 straight games vs. National League Central
  • St Louis Cardinals are on a current run of 7-20 on the road vs. a team with a winning record

Best bets & picks predictions

St Lous Cardinals lost two straight games, where they didn’t score a run. One against the Reds and another yesterday against Padres. They have been great at home with the record of 51-27. But when they play on the road, their record is just 36-36.

Their record on the road should not be ignored. We have basically a team with home winning record and a team with even road record.

St Louis Cardinals batting numbers are not great lately and they are also missing one important player for this game.

San Diego Padres on the other side are playing at home, where they hold a record of 40-31. They will have a better pitcher with better ERA related stats on the mound.

My sports betting model predictions show that San Diego should be a bigger favorite in this matchup.

Recommended bets:

  • San Diego Padres -135
  • San Diego F5 -135

Other picks worth considering:

  • St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Over 7.5 -115

In order to maximize profits, it’s important to shop around for the best lines and take advantage of any other advantages offered by sportsbooks.

Play responsibly and never follow blindly anyone. Always make your own research before you make actual bets. I also recommend to learn how sports betting works, and how to use numbers in betting, before you risk any of your money.

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