The Washington Capitals are set to face off tonight (18.October, 2023) against the Ottawa Senators in what promises to be an exciting NHL matchup. In this article, we’ll break down the key statistics, sportsbook odds, and betting insights to help you make an informed decision on this game.
Before diving into the odds and predictions, let’s take a quick look at the teams’ current records:
- Washington Capitals: 36 Wins, 38 Losses
- Ottawa Senators: 41 Wins, 36 Losses
Now, let’s examine the sportsbook odds for this game:
- Washington Capitals: 2.54 (American Odds: +154)
- Ottawa Senators: 1.58 (American Odds: -172)
- Totals: 6.5
These odds give us a glimpse into how the bookmakers perceive this matchup. The Senators are favored with a lower payout, while the Capitals are the underdogs with a potentially higher payout.
Scoring is crucial in any hockey game, so let’s compare the offensive stats:
- Washington Capitals offense: 3 goals per 60 minutes, 30.47 shots per 60 minutes
- Ottawa Senators offense: 3.17 goals per 60 minutes, 33.18 shots per 60 minutes
Both teams have a strong offensive presence, and the Senators seem to have a slight edge in terms of goals and shots per game.
A solid defense can be the key to victory. Here are the defensive stats for both teams:
- Washington Capitals defense: 3.14 goals against per 60 minutes, 30.86 shots against per 60 minutes
- Ottawa Senators defense: 3.25 goals against per 60 minutes, 31.01 shots against per 60 minutes
While neither team boasts an impenetrable defense, the Senators have a slight advantage in goals against and shots against per game.
Advanced metrics such as Corsi For Percentage (CF%), Fenwick For Percentage (FF%), Goal Differential, and Shots Difference offer a deeper understanding of a team’s performance. Here’s a quick overview:
- Washington Capitals: CF% 49.7, FF% 49.56, Goal Diff -0.14, Shots Difference -0.39
- Ottawa Senators: CF% 51.4, FF% 51.93, Goal Diff -0.08, Shots Difference 2.17
The Senators have the edge in possession metrics, which could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.
In the world of hockey, goaltenders can be the game-changers. Here are the expected goaltenders for this matchup and their save percentages (SV%):
- Washington Capitals: Darcy Kuemper (SV% 0.909)
- Ottawa Senators: Anton Forsberg (SV% 0.902)
Kuemper and Forsberg have performed admirably, and their performance could be a deciding factor in this game.
NHL Betting Model Prediction
Based on statistical analysis, the NHL Betting Model predicts the following outcomes:
- Washington Capitals Win Probability: 41.09%
- Projected Decimal Odds for Capitals: 2.43 (American Odds: +143)
- Ottawa Senators Win Probability: 58.91%
- Projected Decimal Odds for Senators: 1.70 (American Odds: -143)
- Projected Total: 6.72
Recommended NHL Pick
While our betting model provides probabilities and odds, it’s essential to remember that no bet is guaranteed. In this case, our model doesn’t qualify for a recommended pick due to the calculated value of 0.283080504876754, indicating a relatively balanced matchup.
Best NHL Bet
When it comes to sports betting, always shop for the best NHL betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the Ice Hockey Betting Season. If you’re interested in learning how to bet like a pro using analytical sports betting models, consider joining our free betting course to enhance your betting skills.
Stay informed, bet responsibly, and enjoy the game!