As the college football season is in full swing, one of the matchups that promises to be exciting is between California and North Texas Week 1, Friday, September 1, 2023. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, which could make this a very close game. Let’s dive into the details and end with a score prediction that takes all statistics into account.

Analyzing the Teams


  • Slightly Below-Average Offense: California’s offense is slightly below average, scoring 23.9 points per game.
  • Average Defense: On the other hand, their defense is average, allowing 27.8 points per game.
  • Mixed Performance: The negative OSRS and positive DSRS scores indicate weak offensive play but stronger defensive play.

North Texas

  • Strong Offense: North Texas, on the contrary, has a strong offense, scoring 33.8 points per game.
  • Below-Average Defense: However, their defense is below average, allowing 31.7 points per game.
  • Mixed Performance: The positive OSRS and negative DSRS scores indicate strong offensive play but weaker defensive play.

Projected Performance

Given these statistics:

  • California’s offense may struggle slightly against North Texas’s below-average defense, but their average defense may perform well against North Texas’s strong offense.
  • North Texas’s offense may perform well against California’s average defense, but their below-average defense may struggle against California’s slightly below-average offense.

Taking into account all the stats, including yards, rushing, etc., a projection might be:

  • California: 26-29 points
  • North Texas: 27-30 points

Free College Football Pick Week 1: North Texas +6.5

Assumptions Behind the Projection

This projection assumes that:

  • California’s offense will score slightly above their average against North Texas’s below-average defense, and their average defense will allow North Texas’s strong offense to score slightly below their average.
  • North Texas’s offense will score slightly below their average against California’s average defense, and their below-average defense will allow California’s slightly below-average offense to score slightly above their average.

Therefore, the expected score is within 3 points for both teams, making this a potentially very close game.


This matchup between California and North Texas promises to be a nail-biter, with both teams having clear strengths and weaknesses. Although the projection suggests a very close game, remember that this is just a prediction, and the actual game may have a different outcome. Betting should always be done responsibly and with a clear understanding of the risks involved.

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