Brewers vs Rockies Prediction

Looking at the Brewers vs Rockies prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 57.42% chance to win, projecting US odds at -135. The Colorado Rockies have a 42.57% chance, with projected odds at 135. Despite the Brewers’ edge, the Rockies offer a slight value bet at 140 odds.

As we look forward to the Brewers vs Rockies prediction for Monday, July 1, 2024, baseball fans and bettors alike are eager to see how this matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Colorado Rockies will unfold. Both teams will be sending their starting pitchers, Bryse Wilson for the Brewers and Austin Gomber for the Rockies, to the mound in what promises to be an exciting game at Coors Field.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Monday, July 1, 2024
Ballpark: Coors Field
Away Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Home Team: Colorado Rockies

Sportsbook Odds

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 1.68 (-147)
  • Colorado Rockies: 2.40 (140)

Remember, odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks to ensure you are getting the best value for your bets.

Starting Pitchers

Milwaukee Brewers: Bryse Wilson

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.75

Colorado Rockies: Austin Gomber

  • Hand: Left Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.63

Advanced Stats Comparison

Analyzing the advanced stats of both starting pitchers provides deeper insights into their performances and potential impact on the game.

Bryse Wilson

  • SIERA: 5.21
  • xFIP: 5.41
  • K/9: 6.7
  • BB/9: 4.54
  • WHIP: 1.44
  • GB/FB: 0.91

Bryse Wilson’s stats reveal a pitcher who struggles with command and control, reflected in his high BB/9 and WHIP. His SIERA and xFIP suggest that his ERA might be somewhat inflated, but not significantly so.

Austin Gomber

  • SIERA: 4.69
  • xFIP: 4.52
  • K/9: 6.17
  • BB/9: 2.64
  • WHIP: 1.31
  • GB/FB: 1.01
  • xERA: 4.87

Austin Gomber, on the other hand, shows better command with a significantly lower BB/9 compared to Wilson. His advanced stats indicate that he might be slightly better than his ERA suggests, but he is still a mid-tier pitcher overall.

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Bullpen Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen

  • Rank: 11th

The Brewers’ bullpen ranks well within the top half of the league, providing a reliable backup for Wilson if he struggles early.

Colorado Rockies Bullpen

  • Rank: 30th

Conversely, the Rockies’ bullpen is the weakest in the league, which could be a critical factor if the game is close late.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Overall Rank: 10th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 19th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 5th

The Brewers exhibit a strong overall offensive lineup, particularly excelling against right-handed pitchers. However, their performance against left-handers like Gomber is less impressive.

Colorado Rockies

  • Overall Rank: 27th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 14th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 30th

The Rockies’ offense is one of the weakest in the league, struggling notably against right-handed pitchers, but they are slightly better when facing left-handers.

Brewers vs Rockies Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Brewers vs Rockies Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson)

  • Probability: 57.42%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -135
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.74

Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)

  • Probability: 42.57%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 135
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.35

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Moneyline Value and Recommended MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies

  • Side: Colorado Rockies
  • Pitcher: Austin Gomber
  • Odds: 140
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.15
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Despite the Brewers being the favorites according to the betting model, the recommendation leans slightly towards the Rockies due to the potential value offered by the odds.

Conclusion for Brewers vs Rockies Prediction

Using the Brewers vs Rockies prediction, we have analyzed various aspects of the game, including the starting pitchers, bullpen strengths, and offensive capabilities. The Brewers are favored due to their stronger bullpen and overall offensive power. However, the Rockies, with Gomber on the mound, present a tiny value opportunity on the moneyline.

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