Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction

For the Brewers vs Red Sox prediction on May 24, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Boston Red Sox a 60.16% win probability with Kutter Crawford pitching, compared to 39.83% for the Milwaukee Brewers with Bryse Wilson. Bet on the Red Sox at -125 odds for good value.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction: On Friday, May 24, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Boston Red Sox at the historic Fenway Park. This highly anticipated matchup pits Brewers’ Bryse Wilson against Red Sox’s Kutter Crawford. Fans and bettors alike are keen to see which team will come out on top in this exciting contest.

Decimal Odds:

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 2.15
  • Boston Red Sox: 1.80

US Odds:

  • Milwaukee Brewers: +115
  • Boston Red Sox: -125

Always remember that odds can fluctuate, so it’s wise to check the best MLB odds across various sportsbooks before placing your bets.

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Starting Pitchers

Milwaukee Brewers: Bryse Wilson

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 2.20

Bryse Wilson has been a steady force on the mound for the Brewers. With an ERA of 2.20, he has demonstrated excellent control and effectiveness. However, his advanced stats show areas where he might struggle.

  • SIERA: 5.14
  • xFIP: 5.08
  • K/9: 6.59
  • BB/9: 4.71
  • WHIP: 1.22
  • GB/FB: 1.06

These metrics indicate that while Wilson has managed to keep his ERA low, his peripheral stats suggest some underlying weaknesses, particularly in his strikeout rate and walk rate.

Boston Red Sox: Kutter Crawford

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 2.17

Kutter Crawford, on the other hand, has also been impressive for the Red Sox with a similar ERA of 2.17. His advanced stats further highlight his solid performance.

  • SIERA: 3.86
  • xFIP: 3.98
  • K/9: 8.84
  • BB/9: 2.79
  • WHIP: 1.14
  • GB/FB: 0.71
  • xERA: 3.21

Crawford’s metrics show a pitcher who is performing at a high level, with strong strikeout numbers and good control over his pitches.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen Rank: 16th
  • Boston Red Sox Bullpen Rank: 8th

The Red Sox bullpen has been more reliable than the Brewers’, ranking 8th compared to Milwaukee’s 16th. This edge in the bullpen could play a crucial role in close game situations.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Overall Rank: 5th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 16th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 5th

Boston Red Sox

  • Overall Rank: 9th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 8th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 8th

The Brewers boast a top-five offense overall and against right-handed pitching, which is significant as they face Crawford. The Red Sox, while not as high-ranking overall, are consistent against both left and right-handed pitchers.

Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction

  • Milwaukee Brewers (Bryse Wilson): 39.83%
  • Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford): 60.16%

MLB Model Projected Odds:

  • Milwaukee Brewers: +151 (2.51 in decimal odds)
  • Boston Red Sox: -151 (1.66 in decimal odds)

Recommended MLB PICK

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is:

  • Side: Boston Red Sox
  • Pitcher: Kutter Crawford
  • Odds: -125
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.04
  • Confidence: Good value

The model suggests that the value lies with the Boston Red Sox at -125, providing a good betting opportunity based on the given odds and probabilities.

Conclusion

For those looking at the Brewers vs Red Sox Prediction, it’s essential to use this analysis as a guide and not follow any picks blindly. Always shop around for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of promotions during the betting season. If you want to bet like a pro and make your own projections, consider checking out my sports betting courses.

By analyzing both teams’ stats and understanding the nuances of each matchup, you can make more informed betting decisions. This game promises to be a fascinating duel between two talented pitchers and teams with potent offenses.

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