Brewers vs Pirates Prediction

The Brewers vs Pirates Prediction shows a close contest with the betting model favoring the Pirates slightly at 51.61% over the Brewers’ 48.39%. Consider the nuanced stats and team dynamics before placing your bets on this tightly matched MLB showdown.


Brewers vs Pirates Prediction—a deep dive into the anticipated MLB face-off between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, April 23, 2024, at PNC Park. With both teams presenting strong contenders on the mound—Wade Miley for the Brewers and Bailey Falter for the Pirates—this matchup promises to deliver an exciting and potentially profitable betting scenario.

Game Information & Odds

The Brewers come into this game as slight favorites with decimal odds of 1.80 (-125 in US odds) against the Pirates who stand at 1.95 (-105). Given these figures, the game is expected to be closely contested.

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Starting Pitcher Comparison

Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 5.14
  • SIERA: 6.42
  • xFIP: 5.95
  • K/9: 2.57
  • BB/9: 5.14
  • WHIP: 1.29
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.83
  • xERA: 8.69

Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 4.05
  • SIERA: 5.29
  • xFIP: 5.14
  • K/9: 4.5
  • BB/9: 2.25
  • WHIP: 0.95
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.66
  • xERA: 4.28

Bailey Falter exhibits better control and efficiency, showcasing a lower ERA and WHIP compared to Miley. His ground ball to fly ball ratio indicates a tendency to allow more fly balls, which could be a concern at PNC Park—a stadium known to favor hitters.

Bullpen Analysis

  • Milwaukee Brewers Rank: 12th
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Rank: 11th

Both teams have comparably effective bullpens, with the Pirates slightly edging out the Brewers.

Offensive Matchup

  • Milwaukee Brewers Overall Rank: 3rd
  • Vs. Left Handed Pitchers: 30th
  • Vs. Right Handed Pitchers: 3rd
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Overall Rank: 22nd
  • Vs. Left Handed Pitchers: 15th
  • Vs. Right Handed Pitchers: 25th

The Brewers are dominant against right-handed pitchers but struggle significantly against lefties, which could play into the Pirates’ hands with Falter starting.

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis

  • Probability:
  • Brewers: 48.39% | Projected Odds: +107 | Decimal: 2.07
  • Pirates: 51.61% | Projected Odds: -107 | Decimal: 1.94

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter) -105
Confidence: Tiny value (Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.07)

The betting model slightly favors the Pirates, driven by Falter’s better metrics and the Brewers’ weakness against lefties.

Conclusion: Brewers vs Pirates Prediction

The Brewers vs Pirates Prediction should serve as a guide and not a definitive directive. Always ensure to shop for the best MLB odds and take advantage of promotions during the MLB season. For those interested in refining their betting skills, consider exploring sports betting models and courses for a more analytical approach to MLB betting.

Remember, while the numbers lean slightly towards the Pirates, the small margin highlights the potential closeness of this game, reflecting an evenly matched contest that could go either way. Always consider multiple factors and current conditions before placing your bet.

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