Brewers vs Pirates Prediction April 25

Our MLB betting model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 62.16% probability of victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates in their upcoming matchup. With Freddy Peralta pitching, the Brewers are the favored pick at projected US odds of -164. Consider this strong statistical backing when placing your bets.


In this comprehensive analysis, we dive deep into the Brewers vs Pirates prediction for the upcoming MLB game on Thursday, April 25, 2024, featuring Freddy Peralta of the Milwaukee Brewers and Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates. This matchup at PNC Park is not just a regular game but a clash of pitching styles and team strategies that could sway the odds significantly.

Game Overview and Odds

Teams and Starting Pitchers

  • Milwaukee Brewers
  • Pitcher: Freddy Peralta (RHP)
  • ERA: 1.9
  • Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Pitcher: Mitch Keller (RHP)
  • ERA: 4.8

Current Betting Odds

  • Decimal Odds: Brewers 1.83 | Pirates 2.00
  • US Odds: Brewers -120 | Pirates +100

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always verify the latest odds across different sportsbooks.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Freddy Peralta

  • SIERA: 2.07
  • xFIP: 2.4
  • K/9: 12.55
  • BB/9: 1.52
  • WHIP: 0.76
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.95
  • xERA: 3.09

Mitch Keller

  • SIERA: 4.28
  • xFIP: 4.01
  • K/9: 7.5
  • BB/9: 3.3
  • WHIP: 1.47
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.38
  • xERA: 4.67

Analysis: Peralta dominates with a lower ERA and superior strikeout capabilities, highlighting his ability to manage games more effectively than Keller.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • Brewers: 13th
  • Pirates: 12th

Offensive Comparison

  • Brewers Overall Rank: 8
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 30
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 4
  • Pirates Overall Rank: 22
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 11
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 26

The Brewers show stronger performance against right-handed pitchers, which could be crucial in this game as they face right-hander Mitch Keller.

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction

Betting Model Insights

Probability and Projected Odds

  • Milwaukee Brewers (Freddy Peralta): 62.16% probability | Projected US Odds: -164 | Decimal Odds: 1.61
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Mitch Keller): 37.84% probability | Projected US Odds: +164 | Decimal Odds: 2.64

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Milwaukee Brewers to win
  • Pitcher: Freddy Peralta
  • Odds: -120
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 1.66
  • Confidence: Good value

Conclusion: Brewers vs Pirates Prediction

The Brewers vs Pirates prediction leans favorably towards the Milwaukee Brewers with Freddy Peralta at the helm. His exceptional pitching stats combined with the Brewers’ strong offense against right-handed pitchers make them a solid pick. Remember to always shop around for the best MLB odds and consider all factors before placing your bet. For those interested in making informed decisions, consider exploring sports betting courses and models to enhance your betting strategy.

Disclaimer: Betting involves risks. Never wager more than you can afford to lose, and always ensure your bets are well-informed.

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