Brewers vs Mets Prediction

The game was postponed because of rain on Thursday and it will be played on Friday. MLB betting model predicts Brewers vs Mets: Brewers at 54.36% win probability (-119 odds), Mets at 45.64% (odds +119).


As the Milwaukee Brewers head to Citi Field to face off against the New York Mets on Friday, March 29, 2024, baseball fans and bettors alike are keen on the Brewers vs Mets prediction. This matchup promises an exciting game, with both teams showcasing formidable pitchers and a competitive history. With the sportsbook odds indicating a closely contested battle, this analysis delves into various aspects to offer a comprehensive prediction.

Game Overview

The Setting

  • Venue: Citi Field
  • Date: Friday, March 29, 2024

Betting Odds (as of now)

  • Milwaukee Brewers: +100 (Decimal: 2.00)
  • New York Mets: -108 (Decimal: 1.93)

Note: Odds are subject to change. Ensure to check the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

Brewers vs Mets Prediction

Starting Pitchers Insight

The starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Jose Quintana for the Mets, both bring distinct advantages to their teams. Peralta, a right-handed pitcher, has shown impressive performance with a 3.86 ERA, while Quintana, a lefty, counters with a 3.57 ERA.

Analyzing the Pitchers

  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): With a SIERA of 3.45 and an xFIP of 3.42, Peralta’s ability to strike out batters is notable at 11.41 K/9. His control is solid with a BB/9 of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.12, indicating his effectiveness in limiting baserunners.
  • Jose Quintana (Mets): Quintana’s SIERA stands at 4.71, with an xFIP of 4.47, signaling potential vulnerability. His lower strikeout rate (K/9) of 7.14, combined with a WHIP of 1.31, suggests batters might find more opportunities against him.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

The Brewers’ bullpen outshines the Mets’, ranking 9th compared to the Mets’ 27th, potentially giving Milwaukee a significant advantage in the later innings.

Offensively, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but the Mets show a slight edge, especially against right-handed pitchers, where they rank 12th compared to the Brewers’ 21st.

Betting Analysis

MLB Betting Model Predictions

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 54.36% probability to win, Projected Odds: -119 (Decimal: 1.84)
  • New York Mets: 45.64% probability to win, Projected Odds: +119 (Decimal: 2.19)

Recommended MLB Pick

The betting model and analysis recommend siding with the Milwaukee Brewers at +100. The adjusted Kelly Criterion value of 0.87 highlights the value in this pick, indicating a recommended bet.

Conclusion: Your Guide to Brewers vs Mets Prediction

This Brewers vs Mets prediction offers a glimpse into the intricate dynamics of MLB betting. While the Brewers are favored by the model, it’s crucial for bettors to consider all factors, including pitcher matchups, bullpen strength, and offensive capabilities.

Remember, use this prediction as a guide, but never blindly follow any pick. Always shop around for the best odds, take advantage of promotions, and, most importantly, bet responsibly. For those looking to dive deeper, consider exploring sports betting courses or models to refine your betting strategy further.

Friday’s game is shaping up to be an epic clash, with both teams poised to give their all. Whether you’re a fan or a bettor, this Brewers vs Mets showdown is not to be missed.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.