Brewers vs Marlins Prediction

For the Brewers vs Marlins prediction on May 20, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Brewers a 57.72% chance of winning, with projected odds of -137. Backing Joe Ross and the Brewers offers solid value against Ryan Weathers and the Marlins, who have a 42.27% win probability.


Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

On Monday, May 20, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park. As we dive into this Brewers vs Marlins prediction, let’s first look at the sportsbook odds:

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 1.71 (Decimal) / -141 (US)
  • Miami Marlins: 2.11 (Decimal) / 111 (US)

Always remember that odds can change, so it’s crucial to check multiple sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Milwaukee Brewers: Joe Ross (RHP)

  • ERA: 4.61
  • SIERA: 4.37
  • xFIP: 4.38
  • K/9: 7.68
  • BB/9: 3.29
  • WHIP: 1.37
  • GB/FB: 1.02
  • xERA: 4.12

Joe Ross has shown decent control and strikeout ability, but his ERA and WHIP indicate he’s had some struggles keeping runners off base. His advanced metrics like SIERA and xFIP suggest he might be pitching slightly better than his ERA indicates.

Miami Marlins: Ryan Weathers (LHP)

  • ERA: 3.81
  • SIERA: 4.3
  • xFIP: 4.44
  • K/9: 6.89
  • BB/9: 2.9
  • WHIP: 1.17
  • GB/FB: 1.43
  • xERA: 4.5

Ryan Weathers has been more effective overall with a lower ERA and WHIP compared to Ross. His groundball rate is higher, which is beneficial in reducing home runs and extra-base hits. However, his strikeout rate is lower, which could be a disadvantage against a potent Brewers lineup.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Ranked 18th
  • Miami Marlins: Ranked 24th

The Brewers have a slight edge in bullpen performance. Their middle-of-the-pack ranking suggests they can hold leads better than the Marlins, whose bullpen has been less reliable.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Overall Offensive Rankings

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 2nd
  • Miami Marlins: 29th

Performance Against Pitching

  • Brewers vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 12th
  • Brewers vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 3rd
  • Marlins vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 29th
  • Marlins vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 22nd

The Brewers have a significant offensive advantage overall, with a particularly strong performance against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins struggle offensively, ranking near the bottom of the league, which could be detrimental against a right-hander like Joe Ross.

Brewers vs Marlins Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Based on our baseball betting model, here’s the projected probability for the Brewers vs Marlins prediction:

  • Milwaukee Brewers (Joe Ross): 57.72%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -137
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.73
  • Miami Marlins (Ryan Weathers): 42.27%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 137
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.37

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick for this game is:

  • Moneyline: Milwaukee Brewers (Joe Ross) at -141

While the value calculated using the Adjusted Kelly Criterion shows no value (-0.18), this is a bold opinion favoring the Brewers.

Conclusion: Brewers vs Marlins Prediction

This Brewers vs Marlins prediction provides a detailed analysis to help you make an informed bet. The Brewers hold significant advantages in both pitching matchups and offensive performance. However, always remember to shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the betting season.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets. Learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections with our sports betting courses.


Use this Brewers vs Marlins prediction as a guide, but always bet responsibly and make your own informed decisions. Happy betting!

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