Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 53.33% probability of winning against the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 6, 2024. With Freddy Peralta pitching, the Brewers have a slight edge. Bet smart with our Brewers vs Dodgers prediction and check for the best odds.


Introduction

Welcome to our comprehensive analysis and betting predictions for the upcoming game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, July 6, 2024. This highly anticipated matchup features two talented pitchers, Freddy Peralta and James Paxton. In this blog post, we will dive deep into the Brewers vs Dodgers prediction, providing you with valuable insights and data to make informed betting decisions.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Saturday, July 6, 2024
Venue: Dodger Stadium

Current Sportsbook Odds

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 1.95 (-105)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: 1.87 (-115)

Please note that odds can fluctuate, so always check for the best MLB odds on various sportsbooks before placing your bets.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Milwaukee Brewers – Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta, a right-handed pitcher, enters this game with an ERA of 3.83. Peralta has been a solid performer for the Brewers, showcasing impressive advanced statistics this season. His SIERA stands at 3.21, indicating that his ERA might be slightly misleading and he’s been more effective than his ERA suggests. With an xFIP of 3.39, Peralta’s peripheral stats back up his strong performance. He boasts an impressive strikeout rate (K/9) of 11.49 and a manageable walk rate (BB/9) of 3.16. Additionally, his WHIP of 1.13 and ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) of 0.89 highlight his ability to control games and limit baserunners. His xERA of 3.48 further supports his capability as a key pitcher for the Brewers.

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Los Angeles Dodgers – James Paxton

James Paxton, a left-handed pitcher, brings an ERA of 4.28 into this contest. Paxton’s advanced metrics reveal some concerns. His SIERA of 5.35 and xFIP of 5.18 suggest he has been less effective than his traditional stats indicate. With a lower strikeout rate (K/9) of 6.3 and a higher walk rate (BB/9) of 4.52, Paxton has struggled with control and consistency. His WHIP of 1.41 is relatively high, indicating he allows a considerable number of baserunners. The GB/FB ratio of 0.85 and xERA of 4.81 also point to potential vulnerabilities that the Brewers could exploit.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

When comparing bullpens, the Milwaukee Brewers hold an advantage over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers’ bullpen is ranked 13th, demonstrating a solid performance overall. In contrast, the Dodgers’ bullpen is ranked 23rd, indicating more inconsistency and potential for late-game struggles.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Overall Rank: 10
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 21
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 4

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Overall Rank: 5
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 3
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 6

The Brewers have a well-rounded offense, ranking 10th overall. They are particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, where they rank 4th. However, their performance against left-handed pitchers, like Paxton, is notably lower, ranked 21st. On the other hand, the Dodgers excel against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers, ranking 3rd and 6th respectively, highlighting their balanced and potent lineup.

Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis for Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction

Our MLB betting model provides a detailed analysis of the Brewers vs Dodgers prediction. According to the model:

  • Milwaukee Brewers (Freddy Peralta): 53.33% probability
    Model Projected US odds: -114
    Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.88
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (James Paxton): 46.66% probability
    Model Projected US odds: 114
    Model Projected Decimal odds: 2.14

Based on this analysis, the Brewers, with Freddy Peralta on the mound, have a slight edge over the Dodgers in this matchup.

Recommended MLB Pick

After thorough analysis, our recommended MLB pick for this game is:

Milwaukee Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Current Odds: -105
Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.42 (tiny value)

This recommendation is based on our model’s probability, adjusted odds, and the value calculated through the Kelly Criterion.

Conclusion for Brewers vs Dodgers Prediction

In conclusion, our Brewers vs Dodgers prediction suggests that the Milwaukee Brewers, led by Freddy Peralta, have a favorable chance of winning against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, July 6, 2024. However, it is crucial to use the Brewers vs Dodgers prediction as a guide and not blindly follow any sports picks. Always shop around for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the betting season.

If you want to learn how to bet like a pro and make analytical sports betting decisions, check out our sports betting courses. For the final best MLB bets and first half picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB betting model on Google Sheets to make your own baseball betting projections.


This detailed analysis aims to provide you with all the necessary information to make informed betting decisions for the Brewers vs Dodgers game. Remember, sports betting should always be approached responsibly. Good luck!

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