Brewers vs Cubs Prediction

Discover our MLB betting model’s take on the Brewers vs Cubs prediction for May 4, 2024. With a 60.82% probability favoring the Brewers and strong value at +110 odds, our analysis suggests betting on Milwaukee could be a smart move. Check the latest odds before placing your bets!


In this detailed analysis of the Brewers vs Cubs prediction on Saturday, May 4, 2024, we’ll dive into all the key factors that could influence the outcome of this exciting matchup. Set against the iconic backdrop of Wrigley Field, this game not only pits two storied rivals against each other but also showcases a pitching duel between the Milwaukee Brewers’ Tobias Myers and the Chicago Cubs’ Jameson Taillon. With current sportsbook odds favoring the Cubs slightly, let’s break down the components that could shift these odds.

Game Details

Date: Saturday, May 4, 2024
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago

Current Betting Odds

  • Milwaukee Brewers: 2.10 (Decimal), +110 (US)
  • Chicago Cubs: 1.77 (Decimal), -130 (US)

Note: Odds can change, so it’s advisable to check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Tobias Myers (Milwaukee Brewers)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.5
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.41
  • xFIP: 3.44
  • K/9: 8.1
  • BB/9: 0.9
  • WHIP: 1.00
  • GB/FB: 0.77
  • xERA: 4.12

Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 1.5
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.73
  • xFIP: 4.57
  • K/9: 4.5
  • BB/9: 1.5
  • WHIP: 0.94
  • GB/FB: 1.04
  • xERA: 3.11

Comparison: While Taillon boasts a better ERA and WHIP, Myers excels in strikeout capability and control, suggesting a potentially more dynamic performance against the Cubs’ lineup.

Team Performance Analysis

Bullpen Strength

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Ranked 14th
  • Chicago Cubs: Ranked 23rd

Offensive Matchup

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Overall Rank – 5th, vs. RHP – 3rd, vs. LHP – 27th
  • Chicago Cubs: Overall Rank – 16th, vs. RHP – 23rd, vs. LHP – 5th

This indicates a stronger Brewers lineup particularly against right-handed pitchers like Taillon, potentially giving them an edge.

Brewers vs Cubs Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probability and Projected Odds

  • Milwaukee Brewers (Tobias Myers): 60.82% probability, Projected US Odds: -155, Decimal: 1.64
  • Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon): 39.18% probability, Projected US Odds: 155, Decimal: 2.55

Recommended MLB Pick

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (Moneyline)
Pitcher: Tobias Myers
Odds: +110
Kelly Criterion Value: 2.52
Confidence: Good Value

This model suggests strong value in backing the Brewers at these odds, with a significant probability advantage and a favorable matchup against the Cubs’ pitching and bullpen.

Conclusion: Brewers vs Cubs Prediction

For your Brewers vs Cubs prediction, use this analysis as a guide, but always ensure to shop for the best odds and take advantage of promotions. Remember, betting should always be done responsibly and strategically, using models and data rather than emotion. For those looking to deepen their understanding of sports betting, consider exploring detailed betting courses and models.

Always remember: never blindly follow any sports picks, and continue to learn and adapt your betting strategies!

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