Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 60.60% chance to win against the St. Louis Cardinals, favoring the Brewers with projected odds of -154. This prediction indicates a strong value bet on Milwaukee, led by pitcher Freddy Peralta, in their upcoming matchup on April 19, 2024.

Introduction

In our focused analysis of the Brewers vs Cardinals prediction, we take a detailed look at the upcoming game scheduled for Friday, April 19, 2024, at Busch Stadium. This matchup features starting pitchers Freddy Peralta from the Milwaukee Brewers and Kyle Gibson from the St. Louis Cardinals. With the Brewers slightly favored in the odds, we’ll explore various elements that contribute to this prediction.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Overview

  • Date: April 19, 2024
  • Venue: Busch Stadium
  • Betting Odds:
  • Milwaukee Brewers: Decimal: 1.89 | US: -112
  • St. Louis Cardinals: Decimal: 1.98 | US: -102

Note on Odds

Remember that betting odds can change; always verify the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks for the best value.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.73
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.29
  • xFIP: 3.32
  • K/9: 11.59
  • BB/9: 2.75
  • WHIP: 1.07
  • Ground Ball/Fly Ball Ratio: 1.01

Kyle Gibson (St. Louis Cardinals)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.86
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.43
  • xFIP: 4.16
  • K/9: 7.17
  • BB/9: 2.6
  • WHIP: 1.31
  • Ground Ball/Fly Ball Ratio: 1.57

From the advanced metrics, Peralta clearly has an edge with a lower ERA and better strikeout rates, potentially giving the Brewers an upper hand in this matchup.

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction

Team Comparison

Bullpen Strength

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Ranked 7th
  • St. Louis Cardinals: Ranked 3rd

Offensive Matchup

  • Milwaukee Brewers:
  • Overall Rank: 6
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 30
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 3
  • St. Louis Cardinals:
  • Overall Rank: 24
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 22
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 22

The Brewers demonstrate strong performance against right-handed pitchers, which is crucial as they face right-hander Kyle Gibson.

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probabilities

  • Milwaukee Brewers (Freddy Peralta): 60.60%
  • Projected US odds: -154
  • Projected Decimal odds: 1.65
  • St Louis Cardinals (Kyle Gibson): 39.40%
  • Projected US odds: 154
  • Projected Decimal odds: 2.54

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Milwaukee Brewers
  • Pitcher: Freddy Peralta
  • Odds: -112
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 1.63
  • Confidence: Good value

Our model indicates a strong value bet on the Brewers led by Freddy Peralta. The calculated probability and the odds offered provide a good margin for a recommended bet.

Conclusion: Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction

In wrapping up our Brewers vs Cardinals prediction, remember that while our analysis and model provide a structured way to approach betting, it’s crucial to make informed decisions. Always shop for the best odds and consider the full context of the game. If you’re interested in refining your betting strategy further, consider exploring our sports betting courses or accessing the MLB betting model on Google Sheets. This hands-on approach can deepen your understanding of sports betting analytics and help you make more informed decisions.

Remember

Use the Brewers vs Cardinals prediction as a guide but never blindly follow any sports picks. Always check for the best MLB odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season.

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