Braves vs Pirates Prediction

For the Braves vs Pirates prediction on May 25, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Braves a slight edge with a 50.79% win probability and projected odds of -103. However, the Pirates offer good value at 134 odds, with a 49.20% win probability. Bet smart, considering the Pirates’ potential value.

When it comes to predicting MLB outcomes, understanding the key elements such as team performance, player statistics, and betting odds is crucial. For the matchup on Saturday, May 25, 2024, between the Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates, we dive into the details to provide a comprehensive Braves vs Pirates prediction.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

Teams and Odds

  • Away Team: Atlanta Braves
  • Decimal Odds: 1.69
  • US Odds: -145
  • Home Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Decimal Odds: 2.34
  • US Odds: 134

The game will take place at PNC Park, and it’s important to note that odds can fluctuate. For the best MLB odds, always check various sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers Comparison

Atlanta Braves: Reynaldo Lopez

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 1.54
  • SIERA: 3.93
  • xFIP: 3.74
  • K/9: 8.49
  • BB/9: 3.28
  • WHIP: 1.07
  • GB/FB: 1.07
  • xERA: 3.61

Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 3.84
  • SIERA: 4.04
  • xFIP: 3.92
  • K/9: 7.97
  • BB/9: 2.8
  • WHIP: 1.28
  • GB/FB: 1.24
  • xERA: 4.71

Reynaldo Lopez has had a stellar season with a low ERA of 1.54, indicating his dominance on the mound. His advanced stats, including a K/9 of 8.49 and a WHIP of 1.07, further showcase his efficiency. On the other hand, Mitch Keller, while solid, has higher ERA and WHIP values, suggesting he’s been more hittable.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis


  • Atlanta Braves Bullpen Rank: 14th
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen Rank: 21st

The Braves’ bullpen has been more reliable, ranked 14th compared to the Pirates’ 21st. This disparity could play a significant role in late-game scenarios.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Overall and Situational Rankings

  • Atlanta Braves: Overall Rank 11, Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers 11, Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers 11
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Overall Rank 24, Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers 15, Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers 26

Offensively, the Braves have a clear advantage. Ranked 11th overall, they are consistent against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers. The Pirates, with a lower overall rank of 24, particularly struggle against right-handed pitchers, ranked 26th in this category.

MLB Betting Model Probability

Using our MLB betting model, we project the probabilities and odds as follows:

Probability and Projected Odds

  • Atlanta Braves (Reynaldo Lopez): 50.79%, US Odds -103, Decimal Odds 1.97
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Mitch Keller): 49.20%, US Odds 103, Decimal Odds 2.03

The model predicts a close contest, with a slight edge to the Braves. However, the Pirates present a good value bet given the odds.

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our analysis and the MLB betting model:

  • Side: Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Pitcher: Mitch Keller
  • Odds: 134
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.13
  • Confidence: Good Value

This recommendation suggests that betting on the Pirates offers a favorable return on investment given the current odds.

Conclusion: Braves vs Pirates Prediction

For this Braves vs Pirates prediction, always use this analysis as a guide rather than following anyone’s sports picks blindly. It’s crucial to shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the betting season. To bet like a pro, consider learning how to build and use sports betting models through dedicated courses.

By following this analytical approach, you can enhance your betting strategy and make more informed decisions. Good luck with your bets on this exciting MLB matchup!

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