Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my private spreadsheets, and here’s an extra twist – an AI ChatGPT prediction for this anticipated game. This prediction is a result of my diligent MLB betting model, boasting an impressive track record of accumulating over 40 units in merely 4 months. The success rate? A staggering 70% when it comes to beating the closing line, and even more impressively, the best MLB bets have crossed the line over 90% of the time with a positive CLV of +4.52%.

Taking A Glance At The MLB Odds

For those interested in the betting odds, here’s a breakdown:

  • Atlanta Braves: US odds at -125, translating to Decimal odds of 1.8.
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Set at US odds of 116, with a Decimal equivalent of 2.16.

Mark the date – it’s happening on September 12, 2023, at the iconic Citizens Bank Park.

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Atlanta Braves: A Team in Focus

Let’s dissect the Atlanta Braves’ performance:

  • With 144 games under their belt, their Runs Per Game (R/G) stands at a whopping 5.84, ranking them 1st in the league.
  • They’ve hit 278 home runs, securing the 2nd rank.
  • Their Runs Batted In (RBI) count? An impressive 813, again placing them in the 2nd position.
  • Stolen Bases (SB) count stands at 116, ranking them 10th.
  • They’ve showcased a Batting Average (BA) of 0.275, On-Base Percentage (OBP) of 0.344, and a Slugging Percentage (SLG) of 0.501, leading them to rank 1st in all these categories.
  • Their On-base Plus Slugging (OPS) clocks in at 0.845, crowning them as leaders in the league.

Comparing With The League Average

When juxtaposed with the league’s average, Braves’ stats are noticeably above par:

  • League’s R/G Average: 4.63
  • HR Total League Average: 175.1
  • RBI League Average: 640.1
  • BA League Average: 0.249

Philadelphia Phillies: Stepping Up to the Plate

Shifting our focus to the Philadelphia Phillies:

  • They’ve played an equal number of games as the Braves at 144.
  • Their R/G stands at 4.91, which places them at the 9th rank.
  • With 191 home runs, they’re positioned at the 12th rank.
  • Their RBI count is 685, ranking them 10th in the league.
  • The Phillies have stolen 115 bases, slightly below the Braves, and have a batting average of 0.259, which is commendable but still lower than the Braves.

The Mound Showdown

The pitching contest is equally tantalizing:

  • Atlanta Braves have Max Fried with a Left hand. His stats: Wins – 7, Losses – 1, Games Started – 12, ERA – 2.7.
  • Philadelphia Phillies bring Zack Wheeler to the mound, a right-handed pitcher. His track record includes Wins – 11, Losses – 6, and Games Started – 28.

Bullpen Rankings

A quick glance at the bullpen rankings out of 30 teams:

  • Atlanta Braves hold the top spot at rank 1.
  • Philadelphia Phillies, not too far behind, are placed at rank 6.

MLB Betting Model Predictions

My MLB betting model provides some intriguing projections for the full game:

  • Atlanta Braves have a projected MLB model win percentage of 47.17%.
  • Philadelphia Phillies slightly edge out with a 52.83% projected win rate.

Considering these projections, the full game moneyline value leans towards the Philadelphia Phillies.

MLB Underdog Pick for Today

Given the comprehensive stats, coupled with sportsbook betting odds, here’s the AI’s independent take: The Philadelphia Phillies seem to present value at +116, especially with Wheeler taking the lead on the mound. However, while the Braves come in strong, the odds lean slightly in favor of the Phillies.

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