Braves vs Mets Prediction

The Braves vs. Mets prediction on May 10, 2024, showcases a tight contest. Our MLB betting model forecasts a slight edge for the Mets (50.98% probability) over the Braves (49.01%). With favorable odds, José Quintana on the mound, and a stronger bullpen, the Mets offer good value for bettors.


The Braves vs Mets prediction on May 10, 2024, brings together two fierce divisional rivals, each aiming to solidify their position in the NL East standings. In this clash at Citi Field, the starting pitchers Charlie Morton for the Atlanta Braves and José Quintana for the New York Mets will determine the tone of this heated matchup. With Morton’s experience and Quintana’s left-handed finesse, this game is shaping up to be a crucial battleground for bettors.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Friday, May 10, 2024
  • Ballpark: Citi Field, New York
  • Away Team: Atlanta Braves
  • Decimal Odds: 1.62
  • US Odds: -161
  • Home Team: New York Mets
  • Decimal Odds: 2.27
  • US Odds: 127
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Starting Pitchers: Morton vs. Quintana

Charlie Morton – Atlanta Braves

  • Hand: Right-handed
  • ERA: 3.5
  • SIERA: 3.95
  • xFIP: 3.87
  • K/9: 8.25
  • BB/9: 3.25
  • WHIP: 1.14
  • GB/FB: 1.39
  • xERA: 3.69

Morton remains a reliable veteran presence in the Braves’ rotation, leveraging his strong strikeout-to-walk ratio and ground-ball ability to keep hitters at bay.

José Quintana – New York Mets

  • Hand: Left-handed
  • ERA: 5.2
  • SIERA: 4.88
  • xFIP: 4.53
  • K/9: 6.19
  • BB/9: 3.96
  • WHIP: 1.54
  • GB/FB: 1.54
  • xERA: 5.93

Quintana will look to bounce back and regain his control to suppress the Braves’ offense. His challenge will be limiting the walks and improving his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Atlanta Braves Bullpen Rank: 12th
  • New York Mets Bullpen Rank: 2nd

The Mets’ bullpen is one of the strongest in the league, offering a significant edge in relief pitching compared to the Braves’ middle-of-the-pack performance.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Atlanta Braves

  • Overall Rank: 9th
  • Rank vs. Left-handed Pitchers: 8th
  • Rank vs. Right-handed Pitchers: 10th

New York Mets

  • Overall Rank: 14th
  • Rank vs. Left-handed Pitchers: 20th
  • Rank vs. Right-handed Pitchers: 13th

The Braves’ offense has a consistent edge, particularly against left-handed pitchers like Quintana, whereas the Mets’ hitting struggles more against southpaws.

Braves vs Mets Prediction

Betting Model Analysis for Braves vs Mets Prediction

  • Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton): Probability – 49.01%, Projected US Odds – 104, Projected Decimal Odds – 2.04
  • New York Mets (José Quintana): Probability – 50.98%, Projected US Odds – -104, Projected Decimal Odds – 1.96

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: New York Mets
  • Pitcher: José Quintana
  • Odds: 127
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.24
  • Confidence: Good Value

Based on the model’s analysis, the New York Mets present a compelling value pick with Quintana on the mound, offering a positive return on investment with favorable odds.

Conclusion for Braves vs Mets Prediction

Leverage this Braves vs Mets prediction to refine your betting approach, but remember to shop around for the best MLB baseball betting odds before placing a wager. If you’re interested in betting with confidence using models and analytical methods, explore my sports betting courses and MLB picks page for additional insights.

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