Braves vs Mariners Prediction

Explore our Braves vs Mariners prediction, backed by a detailed MLB betting model. The model favors the Atlanta Braves with a 61.42% winning probability, projecting them at odds of -159. Dive into the analysis for a smart bet on this MLB matchup set for May 1, 2024.


In this in-depth analysis, we’re setting the stage for an exciting MLB showdown scheduled for May 1, 2024, featuring the Atlanta Braves against the Seattle Mariners. With the focused keyword “Braves vs Mariners Prediction”, we’ll delve into various aspects of the game, including pitching comparisons, offensive matchups, and bullpen strength. This information is critical for those looking to make informed betting decisions.

Game Information and Betting Odds


  • Date: Wednesday, May 1, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle

Sportsbook Odds

  • Atlanta Braves: Decimal odds 1.62 | US odds -161
  • Seattle Mariners: Decimal odds 2.40 | US odds +140

Note: Odds are subject to change, so it’s advised to check the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Chris Sale (Atlanta Braves)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 3.69
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.11
  • xFIP: 3.03
  • K/9: 9.38
  • BB/9: 1.99
  • WHIP: 0.92
  • GB/FB: 1.44
  • xERA: 3.1

Emerson Hancock (Seattle Mariners)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 5.06
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.25
  • xFIP: 4.31
  • K/9: 6.41
  • BB/9: 1.69
  • WHIP: 1.12
  • GB/FB: 0.91
  • xERA: 5.36

Comparing the two, Chris Sale’s lower ERA and superior advanced metrics suggest a more dominant pitching performance than Emerson Hancock’s, potentially giving the Braves a significant edge in this matchup.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Strength

  • Atlanta Braves: Ranked 6th
  • Seattle Mariners: Ranked 8th

Offensive Matchup

  • Atlanta Braves Overall Rank: 3
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 4
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 4
  • Seattle Mariners Overall Rank: 22
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 22
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 21

The Braves not only boast a stronger bullpen but also hold a significant advantage offensively, ranking top among the best against both left and right-handed pitchers, unlike the Mariners who lag considerably.

Braves vs Mariners Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probabilities and Projected Odds

  • Atlanta Braves (Chris Sale):
  • Model Probability: 61.42%
  • Projected US Odds: -159
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 1.63
  • Seattle Mariners (Emerson Hancock):
  • Model Probability: 38.57%
  • Projected US Odds: +159
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 2.59

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Atlanta Braves (Chris Sale)
  • Odds: -161
  • Kelly Criterion Value: -0.08
  • Confidence: No value, merely a bold opinion

Conclusion: Braves vs Mariners Prediction

As we wrap up our Braves vs Mariners prediction, it’s essential to use this analysis as a guideline rather than a definitive directive. Always compare odds across various sportsbooks, and consider using bonuses and promotions to maximize value during the MLB betting season. For those interested in a more analytical approach to sports betting, consider exploring sports betting courses that delve into the use of models and probability calculations. Always make informed decisions and bet responsibly.

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