Braves vs Dodgers Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Atlanta Braves a 59.41% chance of victory over the Dodgers in this matchup, projecting them as solid bets at -128 odds. This Braves vs Dodgers prediction highlights them as a valuable pick for your MLB wagers this Sunday.


On Sunday, May 5, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, marking a significant event in the MLB season. This Braves vs Dodgers prediction focuses on the anticipated duel between two renowned left-handed pitchers: Max Fried of the Braves and James Paxton of the Dodgers. With the sportsbooks offering odds favoring the Braves slightly, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest.

Game Details

  • Date: Sunday, May 5, 2024
  • Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California
  • Odds: Atlanta Braves (-128), Los Angeles Dodgers (+101)
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Pitching Matchup Preview

Max Fried (Atlanta Braves)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 4.02
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.34
  • xFIP: 3.26
  • K/9: 7.18
  • BB/9: 3.16
  • WHIP: 1.18
  • GB/FB: 4.69
  • xERA: 2.93

James Paxton (Los Angeles Dodgers)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 3.51
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 6.81
  • xFIP: 6.2
  • K/9: 5.26
  • BB/9: 7.71
  • WHIP: 1.68
  • GB/FB: 0.94
  • xERA: 6.16

Analyzing the Starting Pitchers

Max Fried comes into the game with a solid set of underlying metrics that suggest his ERA might improve. His excellent ground ball to fly ball ratio and a strong xERA highlight his ability to suppress quality hits. On the other hand, James Paxton, while posting a lower ERA, shows concerning indicators in his advanced stats like a higher xFIP and SIERA, suggesting he might be due for regression.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Strength

  • Atlanta Braves: Ranked 9th
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Ranked 18th

The Braves’ bullpen outperforms the Dodgers’, providing them a strategic advantage in late-game situations, which is crucial for holding leads or making comebacks.

Offensive Power

  • Overall Rank:
  • Braves: 5th
  • Dodgers: 1st
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers:
  • Braves: 7th
  • Dodgers: 7th

While the Dodgers lead in overall offensive capability, both teams perform similarly against left-handed pitchers, suggesting a balanced matchup when Fried and Paxton are on the mound.

Braves vs Dodgers Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis

According to my proprietary MLB betting model, the Atlanta Braves have a 59.41% chance of winning this game, with projected odds of -146, making them a solid value bet at their current market odds of -128. This suggests a strong possibility of a Braves victory given the comprehensive analysis of pitching and team performance.

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Atlanta Braves (Max Fried) to win
  • Odds: -128
  • Confidence: Solid value

Conclusion: Braves vs Dodgers Prediction

This Braves vs Dodgers prediction leverages in-depth analysis and a robust betting model to recommend a wager on the Atlanta Braves. Remember, the key to successful sports betting lies in informed decision-making and continually shopping for the best odds. Always ensure to check the most recent odds before placing bets, and consider using sports betting models and educational resources to refine your betting strategies. Join us for more insights and updates on MLB picks and predictions.

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