Braves vs Cubs Prediction

For the Braves vs Cubs prediction on May 21, 2024, our MLB betting model shows a slight edge for the Cubs with a 51.36% probability. Javier Assad’s impressive ERA and WHIP make Chicago a solid value pick against the Braves’ Charlie Morton. Bet confidently on the Cubs at +111 odds.


In this detailed Braves vs Cubs prediction for Tuesday, May 21, 2024, we analyze the upcoming clash between the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. With Charlie Morton and Javier Assad taking the mound, our expert insights and betting model provide you with the best picks and odds for this exciting MLB matchup.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Ballpark: Wrigley Field
Away Team: Atlanta Braves
Home Team: Chicago Cubs

Sportsbook Odds:

  • Atlanta Braves: Decimal odds 1.72, US odds -139
  • Chicago Cubs: Decimal odds 2.11, US odds 111

(Note: Odds can change, always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.)

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Starting Pitchers Comparison

Charlie Morton (Atlanta Braves)

Charlie Morton, the right-handed pitcher for the Braves, comes into this game with a solid ERA of 3.52. Advanced MLB stats provide deeper insights into his performance:

  • SIERA: 3.87
  • xFIP: 3.83
  • K/9: 8.61
  • BB/9: 3.33
  • WHIP: 1.15
  • GB/FB: 1.43
  • xERA: 3.59

Morton demonstrates strong strikeout capabilities and maintains a respectable walk rate, contributing to his effectiveness on the mound.

Javier Assad (Chicago Cubs)

Javier Assad, the right-handed pitcher for the Cubs, boasts an impressive ERA of 1.49. His advanced stats are as follows:

  • SIERA: 4.00
  • xFIP: 3.94
  • K/9: 7.82
  • BB/9: 2.79
  • WHIP: 1.03
  • GB/FB: 1.15
  • xERA: 3.08

Assad excels with a low ERA and WHIP, indicating his ability to limit hits and walks, thus keeping runners off the bases effectively.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Atlanta Braves: Ranked 8th
  • Chicago Cubs: Ranked 18th

The Braves’ bullpen ranks higher, indicating a stronger relief pitching staff which could be crucial in late-game situations.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Atlanta Braves

  • Overall Rank: 11th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 6th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 14th

The Braves’ offense is solid overall, particularly effective against left-handed pitchers, though they are middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitchers like Assad.

Chicago Cubs

  • Overall Rank: 15th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 14th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 16th

The Cubs’ offense is slightly below average, with no significant edge against right-handed pitchers.

Braves vs Cubs Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model gives us the following probabilities for the Braves vs Cubs prediction:

  • Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton): 48.64%, projected US odds 106, projected decimal odds 2.06
  • Chicago Cubs (Javier Assad): 51.36%, projected US odds -106, projected decimal odds 1.95

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended MLB pick for this matchup is:

  • Side: Chicago Cubs
  • Pitcher: Javier Assad
  • Odds: 111
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.75
  • Confidence: Solid value

For a moneyline value bet, we recommend placing your bet on the Chicago Cubs as they provide solid value according to our model’s projections.

Conclusion for Braves vs Cubs Prediction

Using this Braves vs Cubs prediction can help guide your betting decisions, but never blindly follow any sports picks. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the MLB betting season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, check out my sports betting courses.

For final best MLB bets and first half picks, please visit our “MLB Picks” page or get my MLB betting model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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