Braves vs Mets Prediction: Underdog Showdown on April 28th

Introduction

Get ready for a nail-biting matchup as the New York Mets (14-11) host the Atlanta Braves (17-8) at Citi Field on April 28, 2023, at 7:10 PM ET. In this Braves vs Mets prediction, we will dive into game details, pitching matchups, and betting odds, offering valuable insights for your mlb predictions, mlb picks, and baseball betting strategies.

Pitching Matchup: Fried vs Peterson

Atlanta Braves: Max Fried

Max Fried takes the mound for the Atlanta Braves on Friday. The left-handed pitcher has an impressive 1-0 record this season, accompanied by a 0.60 ERA and 11 strikeouts. Fried has a strong history against the Mets, with a 7-5 record, a 3.02 ERA, and a 1.198 WHIP. His team’s record in these starts is 10-6 (+3.2 units), with the OVER at 7-9 (-2.6 units).

New York Mets: David Peterson

David Peterson will be the starting pitcher for the Mets. The left-hander currently holds a 1-3 record with a 7.36 ERA and 30 strikeouts. Peterson has a 3-3 record when starting against Atlanta, along with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.302 WHIP. The Mets’ record in these starts is 3-4 (-0.6 units), and the OVER stands at 4-2 (+1.8 units).

Betting Odds and Last Meeting

The last meeting between these two teams was on October 2, 2022, when the Braves defeated the Mets 5-3.

Betting odds for this game are as follows:

• Atlanta Braves (starting pitcher: Max Fried): -139
• New York Mets (starting pitcher: David Peterson): +128
• Over/Under: 7.5 runs

Team Performance

Braves’ Performance and Bullpen

The Braves’ strong performance on the mound is evident, with the fourth-best team ERA (3.38) and the 10th best WHIP (1.24). Their starting rotation boasts 10 Quality Starts in 25 games, ranking seventh, while their pitching staff holds opposing hitters to a .235 average (11th place). Spencer Strider leads the team in strikeouts (49), ERA for starters (1.80), and wins (3). The Braves’ bullpen has a 3.64 ERA and a save rate of 58.3%. They have appeared in 32 save situations, with 7 saves and 5 missed opportunities.

Mets’ Performance and Bullpen

The Mets are struggling on the mound, ranking 16th in team ERA (4.19) and 24th in WHIP (1.37). They have only four Quality Starts, which places them at 26th. The pitching staff allows opposing hitters an average of .240 (15th place). Kodai Senga leads the team in wins (3) and strikeouts (32). The Mets’ bullpen has a 3.30 ERA and a team WHIP of 1.374. They have a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 8.90 (217 strikeouts vs 104 walks) and have allowed 197 total hits, ranking 13th in the league. The Mets’ pitching staff has given up 102 runs this year, with an ERA of 4.19 (102 earned runs).

Hitting Comparison: Braves and Mets

Atlanta Braves Performance

The Braves are scoring an average of 5.2 runs per game, with a 0.255 batting average and 0.331 OBP. However, they’ve experienced a slight dip in performance against left-handed pitchers, scoring 5 runs per game. Matt Olson leads the team in home runs with seven and is second in RBI with 21, while Ozzie Albies leads in RBI with 23 and shares the top spot with Olson for home runs, also with seven. The Braves have shown impressive power at the plate, hitting 45 doubles, three triples, and 40 home runs in 25 games.

New York Mets Performance

The Mets are scoring an average of 4.7 runs per game, with a 0.242 batting average and 0.326 OBP. They’ve also been slightly weaker against left-handed pitchers this season, scoring 3.1 runs per game. New York ranks 14th in runs scored with 113. Pete Alonso leads the team in both home runs and RBI with 10 and 23, respectively. Francisco Lindor is second in home runs with four and also second in RBI with 18. The Mets have hit 39 doubles, one triple, and 26 home runs in 25 games.

Injury Updates: Braves and Mets

Braves Lineup Injuries

Iglesias and center fielder Michael Harris II are both on rehab assignment in Triple-A Gwinnett, and they’re not expected to be activated for the New York series.

Mets Lineup Injuries

The Mets are missing several pitchers – they will play without 11 of them and position players Tim Locastro and Omar Narvaez.

MLB Betting Model Prediction

According to my baseball betting model, the Mets have a 54.31% chance of winning, while the Braves have a 45.68% chance. Converting these probabilities into odds suggests that the Mets should be a slight favorite, not a small underdog. Based on the MLB prediction model and current market betting odds, there’s a small value on Mets +128, as the difference in probabilities provides a positive expected value on the New York Mets.

Interesting Betting Trends

It’s important to note that betting trends don’t hold much predictive power and should be taken with caution. However, they can offer some interesting angles. In the last five meetings in New York, the Braves are 1-4. The Braves are 38-15 in their last 53 games against left-handed starters. The Mets are 17-35 in their last 52 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Over the last three seasons, the Mets are 11-8 (+2.0 Units) against the Braves, and 12 of 18 games in this series have gone over the total (Over=+5.6 Units).

Recommended Picks and Best Bets

Braves starting pitcher Max Fried has had three solid outings, allowing only 11 hits and one run over 15 innings, with the Braves winning two of those games. Mets starting pitcher David Peterson has struggled this season, allowing 14 hits and 13 runs in just 11 innings over his last two outings. However, his other ERA metrics suggest that his ERA is somewhat inflated. With 30 strikeouts in 25.7 innings, Peterson could help make this game much closer.

Taking into account all available information and the MLB prediction model, we anticipate a close game between two strong teams.

Recommended Best Bets for today:

MLB Pick: New York Mets +128 (good option also Mets 1st5 +0.5)

Maximize profits by shopping around for the best lines and leveraging any additional sportsbook benefits. Play responsibly, do your research, and remember that blindly following others is not advisable. Educate yourself about sports betting and utilize numbers in your betting strategy to minimize risks.

Looking to enhance your baseball betting skills? Sign up for our 30-day email betting course, where you’ll receive daily sports betting lessons. Learn how to create your own MLB betting model spreadsheet and make smarter predictions today by clicking here and sign up for a free course!