Blues vs Lightning Prediction: Tuesday, December 19, 2023

As the NHL season unfolds, the Blues vs Lightning prediction is drawing significant attention. The St Louis Blues, with a closely contested record of 15 wins and 14 losses, are preparing to face the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have a similar track record of 14 wins and 13 losses. This Blues vs Lightning prediction brings into focus a matchup between two teams that are evenly matched on paper, making it a compelling game for hockey fans and bettors.

St Louis Blues

The upcoming NHL game between the St. Louis Blues and the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 19, 2023, at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, is shaping up to be an exciting matchup. The Blues have been performing well recently, moving to a 2-0-0 record since Drew Bannister took over as interim head coach, including a dramatic 4-3 overtime win against the Dallas Stars. Jordan Kyrou has been a standout player, with one of his best games of the season against Dallas, contributing three points and nine shots on goal. The Blues’ current record stands at 15-14-1, placing them sixth in the Central Division.

Tampa Bay Lightning News

On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Lightning have been playing around .500 hockey, with an 8-7-1 record in their last 16 games. Andrei Vasilevskiy, their two-time Stanley Cup Champion goaltender, has returned this season with a 5-5-0 record in 10 games, including a shutout. Despite a recent 4-2 loss to Calgary, key players like Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, and Nikita Kucherov continue to be vital contributors to the team. The Lightning’s current record is 14-13-5, placing them fifth in the Atlantic Division.

In their previous meeting this season on November 14, the Blues clinched a 5-0 victory over the Lightning. This game could be a chance for the Lightning to avenge that loss, especially with players like Kucherov and Point continuing to perform strongly. Kucherov leads the NHL with 52 points in 31 games as of the latest update.

The Blues’ offense and defense will have to be at their best to tackle the Lightning’s dynamic gameplay. It’s expected to be a closely contested game with both teams showing strong potential and key players in good form.


Betting Odds Overview

In the betting world, the odds are leaning towards the Tampa Bay Lightning as favorites. They are listed with EU odds of 1.61, translating to -164 in American odds, reflecting the confidence in their potential to win. The St Louis Blues are positioned as underdogs with odds of 2.48 (EU) and +148 (American). The total goals are set at 6.5, indicating an expectation of a game that could see a fair amount of scoring.

Offensive and Defensive Comparison

For a thorough Blues vs Lightning prediction, it’s crucial to analyze the teams’ offensive and defensive statistics. The Blues’ offense averages 2.88 goals on 30.38 shots per 60 minutes, showing a solid capability to find the back of the net. The Lightning, however, have a slightly more potent offense, scoring an average of 3.25 goals from 30.19 shots per 60 minutes.

Defensively, the Blues are conceding 3.25 goals on 31.97 shots per 60 minutes, while the Lightning are allowing 3.53 goals on 30.78 shots. This suggests that both teams have had their defensive struggles, which could play a significant role in the outcome of this matchup.

Advanced Metrics Insights

The Blues vs Lightning prediction also benefits from examining advanced metrics. The Blues have a Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 48.1 and a Fenwick For percentage (FF%) of 47.81, indicating a moderate level of puck control. The Lightning, with a CF% of 50.71 and FF% of 50.59, seem to have a slight edge in maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities.

Goalie Matchup

In any Blues vs Lightning prediction, goaltending is a key factor. The Blues’ Jordan Binnington has a save percentage of 0.898 with an expected 3.42 goals against, while the Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy boasts a higher save percentage of 0.913 and an expected 2.78 goals against. Vasilevskiy’s performance could be a decisive factor in this matchup.

NHL Betting Model Predictions

blues lightning prediction

According to the NHL betting model, the Lightning have a higher win probability of 63.54%, with projected odds of 1.57 (-174 American). Conversely, the Blues are projected with a win probability of 36.46% and odds of 2.74 (+174 American). Despite this, the game does not qualify for a strong betting recommendation based on the calculated value of 0.38.

Recommended NHL Pick

While the model doesn’t strongly recommend a pick, there appears to be value with the Tampa Bay Lightning moneyline. However, bettors should approach with caution, considering the closely matched nature of the teams.


In conclusion, the Blues vs Lightning prediction suggests a potentially close game, with a slight edge to the Lightning. Bettors should consider the even nature of the odds, the teams’ current forms, and especially the goaltending matchup when making their decisions. Always shop around for the best odds, take advantage of promotions during the NHL betting season, and consider a strategic approach to betting.

For those interested in enhancing their betting strategies, exploring analytical sports betting models and educational resources can offer valuable insights for more informed betting decisions.

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