Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction

For the Blue Jays vs White Sox prediction, our MLB betting model gives Toronto a 63.41% win probability, with Chris Bassitt on the mound, compared to Chicago’s 36.58% with Nick Nastrini pitching. The model projects Toronto’s odds at -173 and Chicago’s at 173, suggesting value in betting on the White Sox.

As we gear up for the exciting matchup on Monday, May 27, 2024, the Blue Jays vs White Sox prediction becomes a key focus for MLB enthusiasts and bettors alike. With Chris Bassitt pitching for Toronto and Nick Nastrini for Chicago, analyzing their stats and betting odds can offer valuable insights for making informed wagers.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Monday, May 27, 2024
Ballpark: Guaranteed Rate Field

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
Toronto Blue Jays1.50-200
Chicago White Sox2.70170

Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

Chris Bassitt (Toronto Blue Jays)

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 4.39

Nick Nastrini (Chicago White Sox)

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 11.91

Advanced Stats Comparison

Chris Bassitt

  • SIERA: 4.42
  • xFIP: 4.18
  • K/9: 7.97
  • BB/9: 4.07
  • WHIP: 1.46
  • GB/FB: 1.36
  • xERA: 4.58

Chris Bassitt has had a decent season so far, with a SIERA of 4.42 and an xFIP of 4.18 indicating that his performance is relatively stable. His strikeout rate (K/9) of 7.97 is solid, although his walk rate (BB/9) of 4.07 is a bit high, leading to a WHIP of 1.46. Bassitt’s groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB) of 1.36 shows a tendency to induce groundballs, which can be beneficial in limiting home runs.

Nick Nastrini

  • SIERA: 7.22
  • xFIP: 7.65
  • K/9: 6.35
  • BB/9: 10.32
  • WHIP: 2.56
  • GB/FB: 0.75
  • xERA: 8.79

Nick Nastrini has struggled significantly this season, with a SIERA of 7.22 and an xFIP of 7.65 reflecting his difficulties. His strikeout rate (K/9) of 6.35 is low, while his walk rate (BB/9) of 10.32 is extremely high, contributing to a WHIP of 2.56. His groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB) of 0.75 suggests he allows a lot of flyballs, which can lead to home runs and other extra-base hits.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Toronto Blue Jays: Ranked 27th
  • Chicago White Sox: Ranked 23rd

The Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 27th, while the White Sox’s bullpen is slightly better, ranked 23rd. Both teams have struggled with bullpen performance this season, which could play a significant role in the outcome of this game, especially if the starters do not go deep into the game.

Offensive Matchup

Overall Offensive Rankings

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 18th overall, 20th vs Left Handed Pitchers, 15th vs Right Handed Pitchers
  • Chicago White Sox: 30th overall, 30th vs Left Handed Pitchers, 30th vs Right Handed Pitchers

The Blue Jays have a middling offense, ranking 18th overall, with better performance against right-handed pitchers (15th) compared to left-handed pitchers (20th). In contrast, the White Sox have struggled offensively, ranking 30th across the board, indicating severe difficulties in producing runs.

Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction

  • Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt): 63.41% probability
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -173
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.58
  • Chicago White Sox (Nick Nastrini): 36.58% probability
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 173
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.73

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is the Chicago White Sox with Nick Nastrini on the mound. While the model does not show significant value with a Kelly Criterion of -0.07, this is a bold opinion considering the odds provided.

Side: Chicago White Sox

  • Pitcher: Nick Nastrini
  • Odds: 170
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.07
  • Confidence: No value, just a bold opinion

Note: For final best MLB bets and first half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get my MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets and learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.


Using the Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction can guide your betting decisions, but never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro and use sports betting models analytically, check out my sports betting courses.

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