Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction

The MLB betting model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 65.25% win probability over the Toronto Blue Jays, who hold a 34.75% chance. With Aaron Nola on the mound and strong offensive ranks, the Phillies are positioned as favorites. Check various sportsbooks for the best Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction odds.

Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction

On Wednesday, May 8, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are prepared to compete in a highly anticipated matchup featuring starting pitchers Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays and Aaron Nola for the Phillies. With varied sportsbook odds available, it’s important to analyze this Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction using advanced MLB stats and betting models to make an informed decision.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park
  • Toronto Blue Jays Odds: 2.30 (Decimal) | +130 (US)
  • Philadelphia Phillies Odds: 1.63 (Decimal) | -159 (US)

Note: Odds may fluctuate. Always verify the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks to maximize value.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Chris Bassitt (Toronto Blue Jays)

  • Handedness: Right
  • ERA: 5.45
  • SIERA: 4.49
  • xFIP: 4.34
  • K/9: 8.42
  • BB/9: 4.46
  • WHIP: 1.68
  • GB/FB: 1.19
  • xERA: 5.55

Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies)

  • Handedness: Right
  • ERA: 3.32
  • SIERA: 3.94
  • xFIP: 3.78
  • K/9: 8.31
  • BB/9: 3.12
  • WHIP: 1.15
  • GB/FB: 1.18
  • xERA: 3.93

Analysis: Pitcher Comparison

Comparing advanced stats reveals a notable difference between the two starters. Bassitt has a higher SIERA (4.49) and WHIP (1.68), indicating struggles with control and contact, especially with his high BB/9 (4.46). Nola, with his SIERA (3.94) and superior WHIP (1.15), is less prone to allowing runners on base and controls the strike zone more efficiently.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Toronto Blue Jays: Ranked 27th
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 7th

The Phillies bullpen ranks significantly higher than the Blue Jays, suggesting a more reliable relief performance for Philadelphia should either starter falter.

Offensive Matchup

Overall Ranks

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 18th overall
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 9th overall

Vs Left-Handed Pitchers

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 9th
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 11th

Vs Right-Handed Pitchers

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 19th
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 12th

While the Phillies maintain an edge offensively overall, their stronger ranking against right-handed pitching (Nola’s handedness) should give them an added advantage against Bassitt.

Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

  • Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt): 34.75% probability | +188 (US) | 2.88 (Decimal)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola): 65.25% probability | -188 (US) | 1.53 (Decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Pitcher: Aaron Nola
  • Odds: -159
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 1.01 (Good Value)


In conclusion, the Philadelphia Phillies are the recommended pick for this matchup due to their solid pitching advantage with Nola, superior bullpen, and offensive strength. The Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction highlights Philadelphia as the clear favorite. Be sure to compare odds across sportsbooks and check out the “MLB Picks” page for final best bets and first-half picks. For those interested in becoming betting experts themselves, consider exploring sports betting courses or obtaining a betting model to make your own projections.

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