Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction

For our Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction on July 5, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Blue Jays a 45.75% win probability with Kevin Gausman, suggesting a value bet at +129 odds. The Mariners, led by Luis Castillo, have a 54.25% chance. Bet wisely and always check various sportsbooks for the best odds.


As the MLB season heats up, we look forward to an exciting matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners. In this Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, we will delve deep into the statistics, odds, and insights for this game featuring Kevin Gausman and Luis Castillo as the starting pitchers. This analysis aims to provide you with the best possible betting edge, using advanced stats, betting models, and expert analysis.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
Away Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Home Team: Seattle Mariners
Location: T-Mobile Park

Sportsbook Odds:

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 2.29 (Decimal) / +129 (US)
  • Seattle Mariners: 1.71 (Decimal) / -141 (US)

Odds can fluctuate, so always check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds before placing your bet.

Starting Pitchers Overview

Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.75
  • SIERA: 3.80
  • xFIP: 3.72
  • K/9: 9
  • BB/9: 2.47
  • WHIP: 1.34
  • GB/FB: 1.01
  • xERA: 5.41

Kevin Gausman brings a solid strikeout rate of 9 K/9, with a reasonably low walk rate of 2.47 BB/9. Despite his ERA of 4.75 suggesting struggles, his SIERA (3.80) and xFIP (3.72) indicate he may have been pitching better than his surface stats show. His WHIP of 1.34 and a balanced GB/FB ratio of 1.01 suggest he can manage base runners effectively, although his xERA of 5.41 raises some concerns about his performance in the upcoming game.

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Luis Castillo (Seattle Mariners)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.87
  • SIERA: 3.83
  • xFIP: 3.85
  • K/9: 8.86
  • BB/9: 2.58
  • WHIP: 1.21
  • GB/FB: 0.85
  • xERA: 4.00

Luis Castillo has been a consistent performer for the Mariners with an ERA of 3.87. His advanced metrics, such as SIERA (3.83) and xFIP (3.85), align closely with his ERA, indicating his performance has been steady. Castillo’s WHIP is lower at 1.21, and he maintains a solid strikeout rate of 8.86 K/9 while keeping his walks in check with a BB/9 of 2.58. His GB/FB ratio of 0.85 shows a slight flyball tendency, but his overall profile suggests reliability.

Bullpen Matchup

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Bullpen Rank: 24

The Blue Jays bullpen ranks 24th in the league, highlighting some potential vulnerabilities. A lower ranking bullpen can often be a deciding factor in close games, especially if the starting pitcher exits early.

Seattle Mariners

  • Bullpen Rank: 7

Conversely, the Mariners boast a strong bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB. A reliable bullpen can often seal victories in tight games, providing a significant advantage over opponents with weaker relief squads.

Offensive Matchup

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Overall Rank: 21
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 27
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 19

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 21st overall, struggling notably against left-handed pitchers (27th). Against right-handed pitchers like Castillo, they fare slightly better, ranking 19th.

Seattle Mariners

  • Overall Rank: 21
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 23
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 20

The Mariners share the same overall offensive rank (21) as the Blue Jays but perform marginally better against left-handed pitchers (23rd) and slightly worse against right-handed pitchers (20th). This matchup highlights two teams with similar offensive struggles.

Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis

Our MLB betting model gives us a detailed probability for this Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction. Here are the projected probabilities and odds based on our model:

  • Toronto Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman): 45.75% probability, +119 US odds, 2.19 Decimal odds
  • Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo): 54.25% probability, -119 US odds, 1.84 Decimal odds

Recommended MLB PICK

Based on our MLB Betting Model analysis, the recommended pick for this matchup is the Toronto Blue Jays with Kevin Gausman. Despite being the underdog, there is a small value in betting on them at +129 odds with an Adjusted Kelly Criterion calculated value of 0.37. This suggests a tiny value bet on the Blue Jays.

Conclusion: Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction

In conclusion, our Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction leans slightly towards a value pick on the Blue Jays. With Kevin Gausman on the mound, despite his higher ERA, his underlying metrics suggest potential for better performance. Luis Castillo has been reliable for the Mariners, but the odds provide a tiny value on the Blue Jays side. Always remember to shop around for the best MLB betting odds and consider various sportsbooks before placing your bet.

Use this Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction to guide your betting decisions, but never follow anyone’s picks blindly. It’s crucial to make informed decisions and take advantage of bonuses and promotions offered during the MLB season. For those looking to delve deeper into analytical sports betting, consider exploring sports betting courses to enhance your skills and strategies.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit the “MLB Picks” page or get access to our comprehensive MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own projections.

Good luck, and may your bets be ever in your favor!

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