Get ready for an intense battle as two teams, desperate to bounce back from their recent losing streaks, face off in the MLB. In this Blue Jays vs Pirates prediction, we’ll provide you with essential game details, pitching analysis, and betting odds. So, gear up to make some smart MLB picks and place your bets!


The Toronto Blue Jays will be taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a thrilling MLB game on May 5, 2023, at 6:35 PM ET, held at PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA. The Blue Jays, with a season record of 18-14, are eager to turn things around after losing five consecutive games. On the other hand, the Pirates, standing at 20-12, are also looking to break their four-game losing streak. This match-up promises to be an exciting one, so read on to make informed MLB betting decisions.

Game Details and Betting Odds:

In the Blue Jays vs Pirates game, the betting odds are as follows:

  • Toronto Blue Jays (starting pitcher: RHP Chris Bassitt): -139
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (starting pitcher: LHP Rich Hill): +127

For those interested in baseball betting on the game’s total runs, the Over/Under is set at 9 runs.

The last meeting between these two teams took place on March 15, 2023, where Toronto emerged victorious with a 7-1 win over Pittsburgh.

Pitching Matchup:

The pitching duel for Friday night’s game will see the Blue Jays’ right-handed pitcher, Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.18 ERA), go head-to-head against the Pirates’ lefty, Rich Hill (3-2, 4.18 ERA).

Chris Bassitt’s Performance:

Bassitt has had a decent season so far, with three wins and two losses in six starts, including four quality starts. His 7.6 strike out per nine innings ratio is supported by 25 hits allowed in 33 innings pitched. On the road, Bassitt holds a 2-1 record with a 5.7 strike out per nine innings rate, having allowed 16 hits in 15.2 innings. Bassitt’s performance is consistent with his career average and slightly below the MLB average.

Rich Hill’s Performance:

On the Pirates’ side, Rich Hill has also recorded three wins and two losses in six starts this season, with three quality starts to his name. Hill has a 7.5 strike out per nine innings ratio, allowing 36 hits in 32.1 innings pitched. At home, Hill’s record is 1-1 in three starts, with one quality start, 19 hits allowed in 15 innings, and a 5.40 ERA. His strike out per nine innings rate drops to 4.8 at home, and his hard-hit percentage sits at around the league average.

Bullpen: Relievers’ ERA:

  • Toronto Blue Jays: 3.97
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 3.21

With all the information above, you’re now well-equipped to make informed MLB picks and engage in some exciting baseball betting. Stay tuned for the second part of our Blue Jays vs Pirates prediction, where we’ll delve even deeper into the match-up.

Hitting Performance:

Blue Jays’ Hitting:

The Blue Jays have an average of 4.7 runs per game, a batting average of 0.255, and an OBP of 0.323. Bryan Reynolds, in particular, has an impressive 3% miss rate on inside fastballs this season, ranking 11th best in MLB and placing him in the 93rd percentile.

Pirates’ Hitting:

The Pirates, on the other hand, average 5.0 runs per game, with a batting average of 0.255 and an OBP of 0.332. Ke’Bryan Hayes, however, is slugging just .346 since last season, making him the seventh worst in MLB and placing him in the fifth percentile.

Injury Updates:

Blue Jays’ Lineup:

No injuries have been reported in the Blue Jays’ lineup.

Pirates’ Lineup:

The Pirates have had a relatively healthy season, with the exception of an injury to SS Oneil Cruz. They currently hold the top position in the NL Central Division.

MLB Betting Model Prediction:

My baseball betting model (MLB prediction model) allocates a 54.65% chance of victory to the Pirates and a 48.21% chance to the Blue Jays. Converting these implied probabilities into odds, we find that the Pirates, with lefty Rich Hill on the mound, offer value as a home underdog. Considering the MLB prediction model and current market betting odds, there is a small value on the Pirates +127, as the difference in probabilities provides a positive expected value on the Pirates.

Interesting Betting Trends:

While betting trends do not necessarily predict the outcome of MLB games and should be approached with caution, they can reveal intriguing perspectives. The Pirates have a 12-9 (.571) record when considered underdogs this season, tied for 4th best in MLB (league average: .393). Additionally, the Pirates hold a 39-60 (.394) record on the road since last season, ranking 7th lowest in MLB (league average: .469). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won their last four meetings in Pittsburgh, and the Pirates have a 6-1 record in their last seven home games.

Recommended Picks and Best Bets:

Despite their recent struggles, the Blue Jays have a strong overall team. The Pirates, however, have been performing exceptionally well this season, with a 20-12 record and the top position in the NL Central. As home underdogs, the Pirates offer value based on the available information and my betting model. The main concern is Rich Hill’s tendency to give up home runs, especially with powerful right-handed batters like George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Matt Chapman on the Blue Jays’ roster.

Nonetheless, taking into account all the information and my MLB prediction model, the Pirates and Hill seem like a valuable pick for today.

Recommended Best Bets for today: MLB Pick: Pirates +127 (or Pirates +1.5 for safer version)

Maximize profits by shopping around for the best lines and leveraging any additional sportsbook benefits. Play responsibly, do your research, and remember that blindly following others is not advisable. Educate yourself about sports betting and utilize numbers in your betting strategy to minimize risks.

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