Bet tracker is a tool that helps you track bets. Some old-school handicappers track their bets on paper, advanced bettors use specific betting software, but many bettors still use bet tracking spreadsheets to easily track their bets.
This is a good way to keep past bets organized and analyze past betting performance. Here are 5 statistics every sports bettor must track to have a better idea about his betting performance.
#1 ROI – Return on Investment
The best chance to finish your betting career with profitable results is to start with an investment mindset.
I see a lot of sports handicappers that confuse Yield and ROI and the main difference is probably in the mindset. I explained the difference between ROI and Yield here.
Once we decide to start betting more seriously and once we decide to make a profit, we also must decide how much money are we willing to risk in sports betting. This happens even before we make the first bet.
Or at least it should be so. This amount of money is your starting investment. Imagine that you want to open a restaurant. You must exactly know how much money you are willing to invest and this is your invested money in sports betting.
After let’s say 5 years, you want to see how much profit you made compared to your starting investment. If you locked $10.000 for 5 years and you make +$7.000, simply divide the return (net profit) by the resources that were committed (investment).
ROI = $7.000/$10.000 = +70%
#2 Yield – Betting Efficiency
Yield is something else than ROI and many sports handicappers confuse Yield with ROI. Tracking only ROI completely ignores starting bankroll and not having unlimited bankrolls. It will also ignore that investment mindset of locking bankroll for some time and then looking back how much money you made in sports betting.
Yield will tell us our betting efficiency. It will tell us how much money we made every time when we bet. For example Yield of 10% will tell us, that every time we made a bet, we made +10% of profit on average.
The formula is simple. Yield= profit/sum of all stakes
The problem with yield is that will tell you how you did in the past, but will not tell you what you can expect in the future. Plus there is another problem that many miss – sample size. Yield is heavily dependent on the number of bets. A small sample size of bets will give us a much bigger and unrealistic yield, which later regress to the mean. Yield is a good statistic, that many bettors don’t even track, but it is still not enough to make a final conclusion about sports handicappers.
#3 CLV and xCLV – Closing Line Value
Closing Line Value in sports betting is probably the most important indicator of whether someone is a sharp bettor or not. The sharpest bookmakers openly say, that they use this method to identify the sharpest bettors in the World and this is basically the difference between losing bettors and winning bettors in the long run.
First, we must understand what closing odds are. Closing odds are the latest odds just before the games start and represent the most efficient line and it is very hard to beat (based on efficient market theory – impossible).
This is why it is important to bet early, catch a better price on the market than the rest, and then simply track this performance. This will tell us if we truly have the edge against the betting market because never forget, that you are not betting only against bookmakers, but also against others. Sports betting is a relative competition against other bettors.
Closing line value will tell us if the odds drop after we bet and for how much. This is the simplest explanation. More and more bettors track their bets versus closing lines, which is very very good for the sports betting world because it will filter the rest, who don’t even talk about this.
I see that sports bettors track their bets against closing line value in two ways:
- Compare taken odds versus closing odds. (CLV)
- Compare taken odds versus (fair) closing odds minus margins. (xCLV)
The second is more correct because it is not enough to beat only the closing odds, but you must also beat the margins. We can call it also expected yield.
I track both statistics to see if my betting is going in the right direction (if I beat the closing line) and I want to see if I also beat the margins when I compare my taken odds versus Pinnacle or any other sharp bookmaker. I named the first statistics CLV and the second xCLV.
#4 BTL – Beating The Line Percentage
If the Closing Line Value tells us how strong we beat the line, beating the line percentage will tell us how many times we beat the closing line.
The simplest explanation of the p-value for betting is that this statistic will tell us if our results are by a chance and what is this number out of 100 is. For statisticians, a p-value less than 0.05 (typically ≤ 0.05) is statistically significant. In other words, if you get the number 0.05 that will tell you that your record is happening by a chance in 5 out of 100 times.