As the NHL season continues, the Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction is garnering attention, especially considering the contrasting forms of the two teams. The Colorado Avalanche, with a strong 19-10 record, are set to take on the Chicago Blackhawks, who are struggling this season with a 9-20 record. This Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction not only highlights the disparity in their performances but also sets the stage for an intriguing hockey battle.

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Colorado Avalanche vs. Chicago Blackhawks NHL Preview – December 19, 2023

Overview

Tonight’s NHL action features the Colorado Avalanche facing off against the Chicago Blackhawks at the United Center. The Avalanche, with a strong record of 19-10-2, are set to take on the Blackhawks, who have been struggling this season with a 9-20-1 record. The game is expected to be an interesting clash between the high-flying Avalanche and the underdog Blackhawks.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche are among the top teams in the NHL, boasting an impressive record. They have been a moneyline favorite in 31 matches this season, coming out as winners 18 times. Their offensive play has been noteworthy, with an average of 3.3 goals scored per game in their last ten matches. The team’s power play has been effective, scoring at a rate of 22.6%.

Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks, despite their challenging season, have shown resilience in games where they are the underdog. They have managed to secure eight upset victories in 29 games as underdogs. Their performance at home will be crucial in this matchup against the formidable Avalanche. The Blackhawks have also shown some potency in games with high odds against them, holding a 5-7 record when listed as underdogs of +195 or longer on the moneyline.

Betting Odds and Insights

  • The Avalanche are the favorites with moneyline odds of -250, while the Blackhawks are at +195.
  • The over/under for the game is set at 6.5 goals.
  • Despite the Avalanche’s favoritism, betting insights suggest considering the Blackhawks on the moneyline due to the potential edge in odds.

Key Players to Watch

  • Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are key players, with high probabilities of scoring the first goal or at any time during the game.
  • Blackhawks: Connor Bedard and other players could be crucial in seeking an upset against the Avalanche.

Betting Odds Analysis

In the betting realm, the Avalanche are the clear favorites with EU odds of 1.40 and American odds of -250, reflecting their superior season performance and higher likelihood of securing a win. The Blackhawks, as underdogs, have odds of 3.02 (EU) and +202 (American). The total goals are set at 6.5, suggesting that a high-scoring game might be expected, a common theme in Avalanche games.

Offensive and Defensive Matchup

A crucial aspect of the Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction is examining their offensive and defensive stats. The Avalanche boast a potent offense, averaging 3.58 goals from 31.85 shots per 60 minutes. In contrast, the Blackhawks are less prolific offensively, averaging 2.32 goals from 27.01 shots.

Defensively, the Avalanche allow 3.04 goals on 29.09 shots per 60 minutes, while the Blackhawks concede more, with 3.58 goals against on 32.21 shots. This suggests that the Blackhawks’ defense could be more vulnerable in this matchup.

Advanced Metrics Insights

For a comprehensive Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction, advanced metrics like Corsi For percentage (CF%) and Fenwick For percentage (FF%) are insightful. The Avalanche have a CF% of 53.16 and an FF% of 52.79, indicating strong control over the game’s pace. The Blackhawks, with lower percentages (CF% of 45.17 and FF% of 45.07), might struggle in maintaining possession and generating shots.

Goalie Matchup

The goaltending matchup is critical in any Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction. The Avalanche’s Alexandar Georgiev, with a save percentage of 0.913 and an expected 2.67 goals against, is likely to be a key factor. The Blackhawks’ Petr Mrazek, holding a 0.898 save percentage and a 3.46 expected goals against, could face significant challenges against the Avalanche’s offense.

NHL Betting Model Predictions

avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction

The NHL betting model gives the Avalanche a higher win probability of 65.81%, with projected odds of 1.52 (-192 American). Conversely, the Blackhawks are seen with a win probability of 34.19% and odds of 2.92 (+192 American). However, the game does not qualify for a strong betting recommendation based on the calculated value of 0.16.

Recommended NHL Pick for Tonight

While the model doesn’t strongly recommend a pick, the smartest approach may be to stay away from this game due to the low value of the odds, despite the Avalanche being the better team.

Conclusion

In summary, the Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction points to a potential advantage for the Avalanche, but the betting odds don’t offer significant value. Bettors should consider the teams’ current forms, the goaltending matchup, and the advanced metrics when making their decisions. It’s always advisable to shop for the best odds, take advantage of promotions during the NHL betting season, and consider a strategic approach to betting.

For those looking to refine their betting strategies, exploring sports betting models and educational resources can offer valuable insights for more informed betting decisions.

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