Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my private spreadsheets and additionally AI ChatGPT prediction for this game. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which made more than 40 units in just 4 months, beating the closing line more than 70% of time with high value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of times with positive CLV of +4.52%.
Game Overview
The Oakland Athletics are going up against the Chicago White Sox on August 27, 2023, at the Guaranteed Rate Field. Here are the betting odds:
- Oakland Athletics: 117 (US odds), 2.17 (Decimal odds)
- Chicago White Sox: -127 (US odds), 1.79 (Decimal odds)
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Team Statistics Comparison
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics have played 130 games so far. Their performance can be summarized with the following key statistics:
- Runs per Game (R/G): 3.65 (Rank 31)
- Home Runs (HR): 134 (Rank 24)
- Runs Batted In (RBI): 457 (Rank 31)
- Stolen Bases (SB): 118 (Rank 6)
- Batting Average (BA): 0.224 (Rank 31)
- On Base Percentage (OBP): 0.302 (Rank 28)
- Slugging Percentage (SLG): 0.367 (Rank 31)
- On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.669 (Rank 31)
- On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): 91 (Rank 100)
Comparing to the league averages:
- R/G League Average: 4.604666667
- HR Total League Average: 156.0666667
- RBI League Average: 572.8
- SB League Average: 91.9
- BA League Average: 0.2486
- OBP League Average: 0.3199
- SLG League Average: 0.414
- OPS League Average: 0.7339333333
- OPS+ League Average: 99.86666667
It’s clear that the Athletics are below average in most of the key offensive statistics.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have also played 130 games. Their key statistics are:
- R/G: 4.15 (Rank 26)
- HR: 145 (Rank 20)
- RBI: 518 (Rank 26)
- SB: 78 (Rank 23)
- BA: 0.239 (Rank 23)
- OBP: 0.295 (Rank 31)
- SLG: 0.39 (Rank 25)
- OPS: 0.686 (Rank 29)
- OPS+: 85 (Rank 100)
Comparing to the league averages, the White Sox are also below average in most of the offensive categories.
Pitcher Analysis
Oakland Athletics
Paul Blackburn (R) will start for the Athletics. He has a record of 3 wins and 3 losses in 14 games started, with an Earned Run Average (ERA) of 3.82. His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) is 9.15, walks per 9 innings (BB/9) is 3.01, WHIP is 1.42, Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) is 3.95, Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio (GB/FB) is 1.29, and Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is 4.17.
Chicago White Sox
Mike Clevinger (R) will start for the White Sox. He has a record of 5 wins and 6 losses in 17 games started, with an ERA of 3.47. His K/9 is 7.44, BB/9 is 3.57, WHIP is 1.29, xFIP is 5.46, xERA is 4.48, GB/FB is 0.59, and SIERA is 5.13.
Bullpen Rankings
Out of 30 teams:
- Oakland Athletics: 30
- Chicago White Sox: 25
MLB Betting Model Prediction
According to my MLB betting model, the projected win percentages and odds are:
- Oakland Athletics: 52.43% win, -110 US odds, 1.91 Decimal odds
- Chicago White Sox: 47.57% win, 110 US odds, 2.10 Decimal odds
The projected Over/Under for total runs for the full game is 9.84.
Based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the full game moneyline value is on the Oakland Athletics, as well as the first half betting value.
Best Bet
The best bet for this game is Oakland 1st Half +0.5 at -125.
AI Prediction
Considering all the available statistics and comparing them to the sportsbook betting odds, my AI prediction would lean towards the Oakland Athletics as well. Despite both teams showing below average offensive statistics, the Athletics have a slight edge with a better pitcher starting and a slightly better bullpen ranking. Additionally, my MLB betting model also suggests the value is on the Athletics. Hence, the AI prediction agrees with the model and suggests the value is on the Oakland Athletics.
Bookies Odds
- Oakland Athletics: 117 (US odds), 2.17 (Decimal odds)
- Chicago White Sox: -127 (US odds), 1.79 (Decimal odds)
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