Athletics vs Royals Prediction

For the Athletics vs Royals Prediction on May 18, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Athletics a 54.66% chance to win with projected odds of -121. The Royals have a 45.34% chance with odds at 121. Despite Lugo’s strong pitching, the model favors the Athletics due to their bullpen and offensive edge.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Athletics vs Royals Prediction

On Saturday, May 18, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will take on the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. This intriguing matchup features Ross Stripling for the Athletics and Seth Lugo for the Royals. The sportsbook odds currently favor the Royals at 1.56 (US odds -179), while the Athletics are listed at 2.62 (US odds +162). Always check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds as they can change frequently.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Ross Stripling (Oakland Athletics)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.98
  • SIERA: 4.68
  • xFIP: 4.43
  • K/9: 5.74
  • BB/9: 2.3
  • WHIP: 1.53
  • GB/FB: 1.03
  • xERA: 3.88

Ross Stripling has had a challenging season with a high ERA of 4.98. His advanced metrics, such as a SIERA of 4.68 and an xFIP of 4.43, indicate some room for improvement. His strikeout rate (K/9) is relatively low at 5.74, but he maintains a decent walk rate (BB/9) of 2.3. His WHIP of 1.53 suggests he allows too many baserunners, which could be a concern against the Royals.

Seth Lugo (Kansas City Royals)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 1.66
  • SIERA: 3.83
  • xFIP: 3.78
  • K/9: 7.24
  • BB/9: 1.81
  • WHIP: 0.96
  • GB/FB: 1.01
  • xERA: 3.52

Seth Lugo has been outstanding this season with an impressive ERA of 1.66. His advanced stats are also strong, with a SIERA of 3.83 and an xFIP of 3.78. Lugo’s strikeout rate (K/9) of 7.24 and low walk rate (BB/9) of 1.81 demonstrate excellent control and effectiveness. His WHIP of 0.96 highlights his ability to limit baserunners.

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Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Oakland Athletics Bullpen Rank: 4
  • Kansas City Royals Bullpen Rank: 29

The Athletics have a significant advantage in bullpen strength, ranking 4th compared to the Royals’ 29th rank. This could play a crucial role in the outcome, especially in the late innings.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Oakland Athletics

  • Overall Rank: 6
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 15
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 6

Kansas City Royals

  • Overall Rank: 24
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 24
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 22

The Athletics have a clear edge in offensive performance, particularly against right-handed pitchers, where they rank 6th compared to the Royals’ 22nd rank.

Athletics vs Royals Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

  • Oakland Athletics (Ross Stripling): 54.66% (MLB Model Projected US odds: -121, Decimal odds: 1.83)
  • Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo): 45.34% (MLB Model Projected US odds: 121, Decimal odds: 2.21)

Our MLB betting model gives the Athletics a 54.66% probability of winning, which translates to projected odds of -121. Conversely, the Royals have a 45.34% chance with odds at 121.

Recommended MLB Pick

Side: Oakland Athletics

  • Pitcher: Ross Stripling
  • Odds: 162
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 2.67 (good value)

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the Oakland Athletics offer good value at odds of 162. Despite the Royals’ strong starting pitcher in Seth Lugo, the Athletics’ superior bullpen and offensive edge make them a compelling pick.

Conclusion for Athletics vs Royals Prediction

Use this Athletics vs Royals Prediction as a guide and always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds. Avoid blindly following any sports picks and leverage analytical models to make informed decisions. To learn how to bet like a pro, check out our sports betting courses.

For the latest best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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