Athletics vs Diamondbacks Prediction

For our Athletics vs Diamondbacks prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Arizona Diamondbacks a 60.35% chance of winning against the Oakland Athletics’ 39.64%. With Brandon Pfaadt on the mound for the Diamondbacks, they are the favored pick, but small value lies in betting on the Athletics at +155.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Sunday, June 30, 2024
Away Team: Oakland Athletics (2.55 Decimal odds / +155 US odds)
Home Team: Arizona Diamondbacks (1.45 Decimal odds / -222 US odds)
Ballpark: Chase Field

The much-anticipated game between the Oakland Athletics and Arizona Diamondbacks is set for Sunday, June 30, 2024. With a clear pitching duel between Luis Medina and Brandon Pfaadt, this Athletics vs Diamondbacks prediction will delve into advanced statistics, team matchups, and betting model probabilities to provide an expert analysis. Always remember, odds can change, so it’s crucial to check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Luis Medina (Oakland Athletics)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.25
  • SIERA: 5.46
  • xFIP: 5.64
  • K/9: 6.38
  • BB/9: 4.5
  • WHIP: 1.54
  • GB/FB: 0.68
  • xERA: 4.58

Luis Medina has struggled this season, as evidenced by his 5.25 ERA. His SIERA (5.46) and xFIP (5.64) suggest that his performance isn’t likely to improve without significant adjustments. His strikeout rate (K/9) is moderate at 6.38, but he walks too many batters (BB/9 of 4.5), leading to a high WHIP of 1.54. His ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) is quite low at 0.68, indicating that he allows a lot of fly balls, which can be dangerous at Chase Field. His expected ERA (xERA) of 4.58 is somewhat better than his actual ERA, but still indicates struggles on the mound.

Brandon Pfaadt (Arizona Diamondbacks)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.45
  • SIERA: 3.94
  • xFIP: 3.89
  • K/9: 7.98
  • BB/9: 2.23
  • WHIP: 1.18
  • GB/FB: 1.02
  • xERA: 3.42

Brandon Pfaadt, on the other hand, has shown more promise with an ERA of 4.45. His advanced stats, including a SIERA of 3.94 and xFIP of 3.89, suggest that he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better. Pfaadt’s strikeout rate (K/9) is stronger at 7.98, and he has excellent control with a BB/9 of just 2.23. His WHIP of 1.18 indicates fewer baserunners allowed, and his GB/FB ratio of 1.02 is balanced, implying that he induces a healthy mix of ground balls and fly balls. His xERA of 3.42 further supports that he’s been pitching better than his ERA suggests.

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Bullpen Matchup

  • Oakland Athletics: Ranked 6th
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Ranked 27th

The Athletics have a significant advantage when it comes to bullpen strength, ranking 6th compared to the Diamondbacks’ 27th. This could play a crucial role, especially in close games where late-inning pitching can determine the outcome.

Offensive Matchup

Oakland Athletics

  • Overall Rank: 13
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 17
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 12

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Overall Rank: 12
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 10
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 15

Offensively, both teams are quite similar, with the Diamondbacks slightly edging out the Athletics overall. However, the Athletics have a better rank against right-handed pitchers, which could give them a slight edge given that both starting pitchers are right-handed.

Athletics vs Diamondbacks Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

  • Oakland Athletics (Luis Medina): 39.64%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt): 60.35%

Our MLB betting model projects the Diamondbacks as the favorites with a 60.35% probability of winning, while the Athletics have a 39.64% chance. The projected odds align closely with the sportsbook odds, indicating a fair market.

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline Value: Oakland Athletics (+155)
Pitcher: Luis Medina
Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.07
Confidence: Tiny Value

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, there is a slight value in picking the Oakland Athletics with a moneyline of +155. While it’s a risky bet given the Diamondbacks’ favored status, the calculated value suggests it could be worth a small wager.

Conclusion for Athletics vs Diamondbacks Prediction

In conclusion, this Athletics vs Diamondbacks prediction highlights the importance of thorough analysis in sports betting. The Athletics have a solid bullpen and an edge against right-handed pitchers, while the Diamondbacks have the upper hand in starting pitching with Brandon Pfaadt. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions. If you’re looking to bet like a pro, consider using sports betting models to inform your decisions. For the final best MLB bets and first-half picks, check our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to make your own baseball betting projections.

Remember, use this Athletics vs Diamondbacks prediction as a guide, but never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Betting responsibly and analytically will help you become a more successful bettor.

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