Astros vs Yankees Prediction

Our MLB betting model for the Astros vs. Yankees prediction gives the Yankees a 54.03% win probability with Luis Gil on the mound against Justin Verlander, who anchors the Astros at 45.96%. Despite Gil’s high upside, always consider the best MLB odds before making your betting pick!


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Houston Astros (1.95, -105)
  • Home Team: New York Yankees (1.85, -118)
  • Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY

Note: Odds are subject to change, so always check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Houston Astros

  • Justin Verlander
  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.08
  • SIERA: 4.82
  • xFIP: 4.72
  • K/9: 6.75
  • BB/9: 3.63
  • WHIP: 1.15
  • GB/FB: 0.65
  • xERA: 3.83

New York Yankees

  • Luis Gil
  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.19
  • SIERA: 4.06
  • xFIP: 4.09
  • K/9: 11.61
  • BB/9: 5.81
  • WHIP: 1.19
  • GB/FB: 0.76
  • xERA: 2.3

Pitcher Comparison Analysis

Justin Verlander’s experience and consistency have been a hallmark of his career, showing a solid ERA of 2.08. However, his advanced metrics like SIERA (4.82) and xFIP (4.72) suggest potential regression. His K/9 rate (6.75) indicates fewer strikeouts compared to Luis Gil, who has a K/9 of 11.61. Verlander’s control is better with a BB/9 rate of 3.63, while Gil struggles more in this area with a BB/9 rate of 5.81. Gil’s xERA (2.3) points to better overall run prevention when adjusted for context, but his relatively high walk rate could pose issues against a disciplined Houston lineup.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Houston Astros: 15th overall
  • New York Yankees: 19th overall

In the bullpen, the Astros hold a slight advantage in overall ranking, providing more stability in relief situations.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Houston Astros

  • Overall Rank: 3rd
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 3rd
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 5th

New York Yankees

  • Overall Rank: 7th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 18th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 6th

The Astros rank higher overall and show consistent performance against both left- and right-handed pitchers. The Yankees struggle against lefties but fare better against righties, ranking 6th.

Astros vs Yankees Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Astros vs Yankees Prediction

  • Houston Astros (Justin Verlander): 45.96%
  • New York Yankees (Luis Gil): 54.03%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds:
  • Astros: +118 (2.18)
  • Yankees: -118 (1.85)

Recommended MLB Pick

New York Yankees (Luis Gil)

  • Odds: -118
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.01
  • Confidence: No significant value, but opinion favors the Yankees

Despite limited statistical value, our model leans towards the Yankees based on Gil’s upside and a potent lineup against right-handed pitching.

Conclusion: Astros vs Yankees Prediction

When analyzing this Astros vs Yankees prediction, it’s crucial to leverage all data available and not solely rely on others’ picks. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and maximize bonuses during the season. To refine your betting skills with analytical sports betting models, explore our sports betting courses or check out our MLB picks page for the best final bets and projections.

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