Astros vs Yankees Prediction

In our Astros vs Yankees prediction, our MLB betting model gives Houston a 51.10% edge, making them the value pick against New York’s Carlos Rodon. Houston’s offense ranks high against left-handers, adding confidence to the Astros as the smart choice at +120 odds for this matchup.

In this highly anticipated Astros vs Yankees prediction for Wednesday, May 8, 2024, we delve into a thrilling pitching duel between Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti and New York’s Carlos Rodon. Both teams are vying for crucial wins at this stage of the season, and a pivotal matchup awaits at Yankee Stadium. While sportsbook odds currently favor the home team, this analysis will offer an in-depth look at the starting pitchers, bullpens, and offensive lineups to help inform your betting strategy.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Houston Astros (Odds: 2.20 / +120)
  • Home Team: New York Yankees (Odds: 1.67 / -149)
  • Ballpark: Yankee Stadium

Note: Odds can change. Always check multiple sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Spencer Arrighetti – Houston Astros (Right-Handed)

  • ERA: 8.27
  • SIERA: 4.12
  • xFIP: 4.12
  • K/9: 11.57
  • BB/9: 5.51
  • WHIP: 1.96
  • GB/FB: 0.89
  • xERA: 3.74

Despite his high ERA, Arrighetti’s SIERA and xFIP indicate a better underlying performance. His strikeout ability is notable, averaging 11.57 K/9, but he also struggles with command (5.51 BB/9). Keeping runners off base will be crucial for him against a dangerous Yankees lineup.

Carlos Rodon – New York Yankees (Left-Handed)

  • ERA: 3.68
  • SIERA: 4.14
  • xFIP: 4.59
  • K/9: 8.84
  • BB/9: 3.44
  • WHIP: 1.28
  • GB/FB: 0.69
  • xERA: 4.47

Rodon offers a more consistent profile with solid ERA and WHIP figures. While his strikeout rate is respectable (8.84 K/9), he’s allowed more fly balls this season, which could be problematic against the Astros’ power hitters.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Houston Astros: Rank 15
  • New York Yankees: Rank 18

Both bullpens have struggled at times this season, with the Astros holding a slight edge in the rankings. Expect late-game runs if the starting pitchers falter.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Houston Astros

  • Overall Rank: 3
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 3
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 5

The Astros excel against left-handed pitchers, putting them in a strong position to challenge Rodon.

New York Yankees

  • Overall Rank: 6
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 17
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 6

The Yankees face greater challenges against right-handers, which could give Arrighetti a slight edge.

Astros vs Yankees Prediction

Betting Model Analysis for Astros vs Yankees Prediction

  • Houston Astros (Spencer Arrighetti): 51.10% (Projected US Odds: -105 / Projected Decimal Odds: 1.96)
  • New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon): 48.89% (Projected US Odds: +105 / Projected Decimal Odds: 2.05)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Houston Astros
  • Pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti
  • Odds: +120
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.04
  • Confidence: Good value

Our MLB betting model analysis identifies the Houston Astros as the value pick for this game due to the probability projection and current odds.


This Astros vs Yankees prediction suggests an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the underdog value presented by Houston. While it’s essential to use predictions as a guide, never follow anyone’s sports picks blindly. Always seek out the best MLB betting odds across sportsbooks and take advantage of available promotions. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, using analytics and sports betting models, explore our sports betting courses for in-depth insights.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.