The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays go head-to-head in a thrilling MLB matchup. Our Astros vs Rays prediction explores key factors such as pitching, hitting, and injuries, to reveal an underdog value bet you don’t want to miss.
Introduction and Game Details
Get ready for an exhilarating MLB showdown as the Houston Astros take on the Tampa Bay Rays on April 25, 2023, at 6:40 PM ET, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL. The Rays opened their three-game series against the Astros with an impressive 8-3 victory on Monday, and they’ll be aiming to clinch the series in the second game. With the keyword Astros vs Rays prediction in mind, let’s dive into the details of this much-anticipated matchup.
Betting Odds and Pitching Matchup
- Houston Astros (starting pitcher: Luis Garcia): +152 Tampa Bay Rays (starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen): -167
- Betting on totals or Over Under: 8 runs
In their last meeting on April 24, 2023, the Rays dominated the Astros with an 8-3 victory. The Rays currently hold the best record in the league at 20-3, while the Astros stand at 12-11.
Houston Astros – Luis Garcia
Houston Astros’ starting pitcher Luis Garcia, a right-handed pitcher, has an ERA of 5.14, a WHIP of 1.381, a 1-2 win-loss record, and an average of 5.2 innings per start this season. Garcia is looking to bounce back to the form that earned him 15 victories in 2022. In his career against the Rays, Garcia holds a 2-1 record with a 3.94 ERA in three starts.
Tampa Bay Rays – Drew Rasmussen
On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays’ starting pitcher, Drew Rasmussen, also a right-handed pitcher, has an ERA of 2.02, a WHIP of 0.940, a 3-1 win-loss record, and an average of 5.6 innings per start this season. Rasmussen has a 2-1 record with a 3.00 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Astros. Alex Bregman has gone 3-for-8 with a homer off Rasmussen.
Astros’ bullpen ERA stands at 3.15, while the Rays’ bullpen ERA is at 2.79.
With all this information in mind, let’s move on to the second part of our Astros vs Rays prediction blog post.
Houston Astros: 5.04 runs per game, 0.252 batting average, 0.329 OBP Tampa Bay Rays: 6.83 runs per game, 0.287 batting average, 0.360 OBP
The Tampa Bay Rays have proven to be the best hitting team this season, scoring even more runs at home. Their home record is an astonishing 14-0, with 7.2 runs per game and 29 home runs.
- [LF] Yordan Alvarez (Neck) – Questionable
- [CF] Chas McCormick (Back) – 10-Day Injured List
- [LF] Michael Brantley (Shoulder) – 10-Day Injured List
- [RP] Parker Mushinski (Back) – 15-Day Injured List
- [2B] Jose Altuve (Thumb) – 10-Day Injured List
- [RP] Ryan Thompson (Back) – 15-Day Injured List
- [SP] Jeffrey Springs (Arm) – 60-Day Injured List
- [CF] Jose Siri (Hamstring) – 10-Day Injured List
- [RP] Shawn Armstrong (Neck) – 60-Day Injured List
MLB Betting Model Prediction
My baseball betting model gives the Astros a 50.65% chance of winning and the Rays a 49.35% chance. When converting these probabilities into odds, we get nearly even odds for both teams. This means the game could be very close. Based on my MLB prediction model and current betting odds, there’s value in backing the Astros at +152.
Betting Trends to Consider
Keep in mind that betting trends have little to no predictive power, but they can reveal interesting angles here are some MLB betting trends for this game:
- Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay
- Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings
- Astros are 43-15 in their last 58 games following a loss
- Rays are 14-2 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter
- Rays are 40-13 in their last 53 home games
Recommended Picks and Best Bets
The Tampa Bay Rays are currently the best team in MLB, and if they maintain their performance, they could be World Series contenders. Their 14-0 home record is impressive, and they beat the Astros in their last game. However, the Astros, as reigning champions, are a strong team that can win on any given day.
Considering all available information and my MLB prediction model, there’s value in betting on the Astros at +152. Although they have some injuries, they remain a formidable team. Additionally, the Run Line of +1.5 is a safer option, with varying odds across sportsbooks.
Recommended Best Bets:
- MLB Pick: Houston Astros +156 (or +1.5 Run Line for a safer option)
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