Astros vs Mets Prediction

For the Astros vs Mets prediction on June 28, 2024, our MLB betting model favors the New York Mets with a 58.37% probability. Mets’ superior offense and bullpen, alongside Jose Quintana’s pitching, offer good value at -105 odds. Bet smart with our detailed analysis and maximize your chances.


When it comes to the Astros vs Mets prediction for Friday, June 28, 2024, bettors and baseball enthusiasts are in for an intriguing matchup between two distinct pitching styles. Ronel Blanco of the Houston Astros and Jose Quintana of the New York Mets will be taking the mound, each aiming to lead their team to victory at Citi Field. In this analysis, we’ll break down the starting pitchers, bullpen matchups, offensive capabilities, and our MLB betting model’s insights to provide a comprehensive prediction for this game.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Overview

  • Date: Friday, June 28, 2024
  • Ballpark: Citi Field

Sportsbook Odds

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
Houston Astros1.80-125
New York Mets1.95-105

Note: Odds can change frequently. Always check various sportsbooks to get the best MLB odds.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Ronel Blanco (Houston Astros)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.34

Ronel Blanco has been a strong presence on the mound this season. His advanced stats include a SIERA of 4.19, an xFIP of 4.13, and a K/9 of 8.4. Blanco’s WHIP is a commendable 0.97, indicating his ability to limit baserunners. His GB/FB ratio of 0.9 and xERA of 3.57 suggest that his performance is sustainable and backed by solid pitching mechanics.

Jose Quintana (New York Mets)

  • Hand: Left-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.58

Jose Quintana, on the other hand, has struggled more this season with an ERA of 4.58. His advanced metrics show a SIERA of 4.56 and an xFIP of 4.53, alongside a K/9 of 6.64. Quintana’s WHIP stands at 1.32, and his GB/FB ratio is 1.25. His xERA of 5.13 indicates potential issues with his current form and effectiveness.

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Bullpen Matchup Analysis

The bullpens for both teams will play a crucial role in this matchup. The Houston Astros’ bullpen is ranked 8th, showing solid depth and reliability. Meanwhile, the New York Mets have an even stronger bullpen, ranked 4th, providing them with a slight edge in late-game situations.

Offensive Matchup

Houston Astros

  • Overall Rank: 10
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 12
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 9

The Astros’ offense is strong overall, though they tend to perform slightly better against right-handed pitchers compared to left-handers like Quintana.

New York Mets

  • Overall Rank: 2
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 3
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 4

The Mets boast one of the top offenses in the league, excelling against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. This balanced offensive prowess gives them a significant advantage, particularly at their home ballpark.

Astros vs Mets Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model projects the following probabilities for the Astros vs Mets prediction:

TeamProbabilityMLB Model Projected US OddsMLB Model Projected Decimal Odds
Houston Astros (Blanco)41.62%1402.40
New York Mets (Quintana)58.37%-1401.71

The model favors the New York Mets with a probability of 58.37%, translating to projected US odds of -140 and decimal odds of 1.71. This suggests that the Mets are the more likely winners in this matchup.

Recommended MLB PICK Based on Our Betting Model Analysis

Based on our analysis, the recommended MLB pick is:

  • Side: New York Mets
  • Pitcher: Jose Quintana
  • Odds: -105
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.45
  • Confidence: Good Value

The model indicates that there is value in betting on the Mets at the current odds, with a good level of confidence in this prediction.

Conclusion for Astros vs Mets Prediction

When considering the Astros vs Mets prediction, it’s essential to weigh all aspects, from pitching matchups to bullpen strengths and offensive capabilities. The Astros’ Ronel Blanco brings a solid performance, but the Mets’ overall edge in bullpen and offensive ranks, combined with the model’s probability, leans towards a Mets victory.

Always remember to use the Astros vs Mets prediction as a guide and not follow anyone’s sports picks blindly. Shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the season. If you want to bet like a pro and use sports betting models analytically, consider exploring sports betting courses.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get my MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

In conclusion, the New York Mets are favored in this matchup, and betting on them offers good value based on the current odds and model predictions.

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