Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction July 4

For the Astros vs Blue Jays prediction on July 4, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Houston Astros a 53.51% chance of winning, with projected odds of -115 (1.87 decimal). With Framber Valdez on the mound, the Astros are favored over Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays. Bet wisely!


The MLB matchup on Thursday, July 4, 2024, between the Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays is set to be an exciting game. Our Astros vs Blue Jays prediction focuses on analyzing the starting pitchers, Framber Valdez and Chris Bassitt, and their respective teams’ performances. With the Houston Astros visiting the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, this game promises high stakes and intense competition.

Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the detailed analysis, let’s take a look at the game information and sportsbook odds for the Astros vs Blue Jays prediction.

Date: Thursday, July 4, 2024
Ballpark: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario

Sportsbook Odds

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
Houston Astros1.83-120
Toronto Blue Jays2.00100

Odds are subject to change, so always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Framber Valdez (Houston Astros)

Framber Valdez, a left-handed pitcher for the Houston Astros, has an ERA of 4.11. While his ERA might not be the lowest, it’s crucial to look at his advanced stats to get a complete picture.

  • SIERA: 3.75
  • xFIP: 3.56
  • K/9: 7.17
  • BB/9: 3.06
  • WHIP: 1.29
  • GB/FB: 3.26
  • xERA: 4.03

Valdez’s SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) of 3.75 and xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.56 indicate that he has been pitching better than his traditional ERA suggests. His groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB) of 3.26 shows he induces a lot of groundballs, which can be crucial in limiting extra-base hits.

Chris Bassitt (Toronto Blue Jays)

Chris Bassitt, the right-handed pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, has an ERA of 3.24. Bassitt has had a solid season, and his advanced stats provide further insights.

  • SIERA: 4.17
  • xFIP: 4.04
  • K/9: 8.41
  • BB/9: 3.42
  • WHIP: 1.37
  • GB/FB: 1.3
  • xERA: 4.12

Bassitt’s strikeout rate (K/9) of 8.41 is higher than Valdez’s, indicating his ability to get more strikeouts. However, his SIERA and xFIP are higher than his actual ERA, suggesting he might have been somewhat lucky or benefited from good defense behind him.

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Bullpen Matchup

The bullpen plays a significant role in the outcome of games, especially in closely contested matchups like the Astros vs Blue Jays prediction.

  • Houston Astros Bullpen Rank: 11th
  • Toronto Blue Jays Bullpen Rank: 24th

The Houston Astros have a notable advantage in the bullpen, ranked 11th compared to the Blue Jays’ 24th. This discrepancy could be crucial late in the game.

Offensive Matchup

Analyzing the offensive capabilities of both teams provides further insight into our Astros vs Blue Jays prediction.

Houston Astros

  • Overall Rank: 11
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 11
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 8

The Astros have a well-rounded offense, ranking 11th overall. They perform slightly better against right-handed pitchers, which could be a key factor against Bassitt.

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Overall Rank: 20
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 23
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17

The Blue Jays’ offense ranks 20th overall and struggles more against left-handed pitchers, ranking 23rd. This could present a challenge against Valdez, a lefty.

Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides probabilities and projected odds for the Astros vs Blue Jays prediction.

  • Houston Astros (Framber Valdez): 53.51%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -115
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.87
  • Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt): 46.49%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 115
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.15

According to our model, the Astros have a slight edge with a 53.51% probability of winning, making them the recommended pick.

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is:

Side: Houston Astros
Pitcher: Framber Valdez
Odds: -120
Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.25 (no value, just bold opinion)

While the adjusted Kelly Criterion value indicates no significant value, the bold opinion is to back the Astros.

Conclusion for Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction

In conclusion, our Astros vs Blue Jays prediction highlights the Houston Astros as the slight favorites for the game on Thursday, July 4, 2024. With Framber Valdez on the mound and a stronger bullpen, the Astros have the edge over the Blue Jays, who struggle against left-handed pitchers. Remember to shop for the best MLB betting odds and consider all factors before placing your bets. For more insights and betting models, check out our “MLB Picks” page and our sports betting courses to learn how to bet like a pro.

Use this Astros vs Blue Jays prediction to guide your betting decisions, but always make sure to do your research and never follow anyone’s sports picks blindly. Good luck!

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