Appalachian State vs North Carolina Prediction Week 2, 2023

Appalachian State vs. North Carolina Analysis and College Football Picks

Team Overview

Appalachian State Mountaineers:

• Overall Performance: Appalachian State’s SRS is positive at 6.28. This is credited to their offensive contributions, but they suffer from a defensive lag as seen in their DSRS.
• Scoring: Specific figures for average points scored and conceded aren’t provided.
• Passing and Rushing: The Mountaineers have a strong passing game, averaging 10.17 yards per pass. Their rush game is also decent at 3.49 yards. Defensively, they allow a significant 5.02 yards per pass and 4.45 yards per rush.
• Efficiency: With a negative FPI of -7, the outlook isn’t too bright for them, and their offensive efficiency rank of 94 confirms this. However, their defensive efficiency is excellent at 17.6.

North Carolina Tar Heels:

• Overall Performance: The SRS specifics for North Carolina are missing, but their FPI of 12.3 showcases that they’re likely one of the better-performing teams this season.
• Scoring: The Tar Heels score a good 34.4 points per game on average while allowing 30.8 points.
• Passing and Rushing: They maintain an average performance in both passing (7.63 yards) and rushing (4.52 yards). On defense, they concede 6.68 yards per pass and 3.78 yards per rush, which are areas of concern.
• Efficiency: North Carolina’s offensive efficiency rank is quite good at 18. The defensive efficiency is a bit lacking at 81.6, suggesting they might be involved in high-scoring games.

Head-to-Head Projection (with weighted FPI):

1. Appalachian State’s Offense vs. North Carolina’s Defense: Appalachian State’s offensive prowess might have a tough time breaking through consistently against North Carolina, especially given their negative FPI.
2. North Carolina’s Offense vs. Appalachian State’s Defense: Given North Carolina’s positive FPI, it’s expected they would perform well offensively. However, Appalachian State’s excellent defensive efficiency might prove challenging for the Tar Heels.

Projected Points (FPI-weighted):

• Appalachian State: With their offensive metrics and considering North Carolina’s defensive figures, they could score approximately 24-28 points.
• North Carolina: Given their high FPI and taking into account Appalachian State’s defensive stats, they seem poised to score around 35-39 points.

Small value with Appalachia State as an underdog to cover +18.5 spread.

Conclusion:

Given North Carolina’s superior FPI and the overall metrics, they have the edge in this matchup against Appalachian State. The Tar Heels are likely to win, but the margin might not be too large given the Mountaineers’ defensive efficiency.