Angels vs Phillies Prediction – Betting Model Analysis 8/30/23

Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions! Today, we are focusing on the Angels vs Phillies prediction, one of the most anticipated games in the baseball world. This prediction is backed by my private MLB betting model, which has successfully made over 40 units in just 4 months.

Moreover, it has beaten the closing line more than 70% of the time with high value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of times with a positive Closing Line Value (CLV) of +4.52%.

Betting Odds

The betting odds for the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Philadelphia Phillies on August 30, 2023, at the Citizens Bank Park are as follows:

Team	US odds	Decimal odds
Los Angeles Angels	154	2.54
Philadelphia Phillies	-167	1.6

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Team Statistics Comparison

Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels have played 133 games so far. Their stats are as follows:

• Runs per Game (R/G): 4.72 (Rank 12)
• Home Runs (HR): 193 (Rank 5)
• Runs Batted In (RBI): 604 (Rank 13)
• Stolen Bases (SB): 63 (Rank 28)
• Batting Average (BA): 0.249 (Rank 15)
• On-Base Percentage (OBP): 0.323 (Rank 14)
• Slugging Percentage (SLG): 0.434 (Rank 7)
• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.757 (Rank 8)
• On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): 103 (Rank 100)

Philadelphia Phillies

On the other side, the Philadelphia Phillies have also played 132 games with the following stats:

• Runs per Game (R/G): 4.86 (Rank 9)
• Home Runs (HR): 170 (Rank 12)
• Runs Batted In (RBI): 620 (Rank 10)
• Stolen Bases (SB): 101 (Rank 12)
• Batting Average (BA): 0.26 (Rank 5)
• On-Base Percentage (OBP): 0.328 (Rank 8)
• Slugging Percentage (SLG): 0.439 (Rank 5)
• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.767 (Rank 6)
• On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): 109 (Rank 100)

League Averages

To give context to these numbers, here are the league averages:

• Runs per Game (R/G): 4.604
• Home Runs (HR): 159.77
• Runs Batted In (RBI): 585.7
• Stolen Bases (SB): 93.7
• Batting Average (BA): 0.2487
• On-Base Percentage (OBP): 0.3198
• Slugging Percentage (SLG): 0.4141
• On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.7340
• On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): 99.97

Pitching Matchup

For the Los Angeles Angels, Reid Detmers, a left-handed pitcher with a 3-10 win-loss record in 23 games started, will be on the mound. He has an Earned Run Average (ERA) of 5.03, a strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) of 10.43, a walks per nine innings (BB/9) of 3.75, a Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP) of 1.38, an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 4.27, an expected Earned Run Average (xERA) of 4.52, a Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio (GB/FB) of 0.86, and a Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) of 4.14.

The Philadelphia Phillies will start with Cristopher Sanchez, a left-handed pitcher with a 2-3 win-loss record in 13 games started. He has an ERA of 3.33, a K/9 of 8.19, a BB/9 of 1.54, a WHIP of 1.01, an xFIP of 3.4, an xERA of 3.66, a GB/FB of 2.04, and a SIERA of 3.53.

Bullpen Rankings

My bullpen rankings out of 30 teams are as follows:

• Los Angeles Angels: 25
• Philadelphia Phillies: 5

MLB Betting Model Prediction

According to my MLB betting model, the projected win percentages and odds are as follows:

Team	Projected MLB model win%	Projected US odds	Projected decimal odds
Los Angeles Angels	32.36%	209	3.09
Philadelphia Phillies	67.63%	-209	1.48

The projected Over Under for total runs for the full game is 9.71.

Based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the full game moneyline value is on the Philadelphia Phillies. However, there is no qualified bet for the first half betting value.

BEST BET: Phillies (Sanchez) -167

AI ChatGPT Prediction

Taking into account all the available statistics provided and comparing them to the sportsbook odds, my AI prediction for the Angels vs Phillies game leans towards the Philadelphia Phillies as well. The Phillies have a stronger offense, as reflected in their higher R/G, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ ranks compared to the Angels. Additionally, the Phillies have a significant advantage in the pitching department, with Cristopher Sanchez having better stats than Reid Detmers and a much higher ranked bullpen.

Bookies odds:

Team	US odds	Decimal odds
Los Angeles Angels	154	2.54
Philadelphia Phillies	-167	1.6

In conclusion, the value, in my opinion, lies with the Philadelphia Phillies at -167. This is consistent with both my MLB betting model and the current sportsbook odds.

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