Angels vs Cubs Prediction

The Angels vs Cubs prediction for July 5, 2024, highlights a competitive match-up with our MLB betting model giving the Cubs a 57.33% win probability and the Angels 42.66%. Despite the Cubs’ edge, betting value lies with the Angels at +164 odds. Explore detailed analysis for informed betting.


As we approach the highly anticipated Angels vs Cubs game on Friday, July 5, 2024, betting enthusiasts are eager to dive into detailed analyses and predictions. Our Angels vs Cubs prediction provides in-depth insights into the starting pitchers, Griffin Canning and Justin Steele, along with advanced statistics, bullpen matchups, and offensive rankings. By examining these critical factors, we aim to offer a comprehensive outlook on which team holds the advantage and where the best betting value lies. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newcomer, our detailed breakdown will help you make informed decisions for this exciting MLB matchup.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Decimal and US Odds:

  • Los Angeles Angels: 2.64 (Decimal), +164 (US)
  • Chicago Cubs: 1.56 (Decimal), -179 (US)

The odds reflect the betting market’s lean towards the Cubs, but as we delve into the details of this Angels vs Cubs prediction, we’ll explore if there’s value in backing the underdog.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Griffin Canning (Los Angeles Angels)

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.71

Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs)

  • Hand: Left Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.2

Advanced Stats Comparison:

  • SIERA: Canning (4.88) vs. Steele (3.57)
  • xFIP: Canning (4.85) vs. Steele (3.52)
  • K/9: Canning (6.05) vs. Steele (8.96)
  • BB/9: Canning (3.07) vs. Steele (2.05)
  • WHIP: Canning (1.33) vs. Steele (1.07)
  • GB/FB: Canning (1.07) vs. Steele (1.08)
  • xERA: Canning (4.75) vs. Steele (3.05)

From these statistics, it’s clear that Justin Steele has the edge over Griffin Canning in most advanced metrics, making him a formidable opponent on the mound.

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Bullpen Matchup Analysis

When examining the bullpen rankings, both teams find themselves in less-than-ideal positions:

  • Los Angeles Angels: 25th
  • Chicago Cubs: 27th

Despite the Cubs’ bullpen ranking slightly lower, this aspect of the game might not heavily influence the outcome given both teams’ struggles in relief pitching.

Offensive Matchup

Overall Hitting Ranks:

  • Los Angeles Angels: 17th
  • Chicago Cubs: 20th

Performance Against Different Pitching:

  • Angels vs. Left Handed Pitchers: 3rd
  • Angels vs. Right Handed Pitchers: 23rd
  • Cubs vs. Left Handed Pitchers: 25th
  • Cubs vs. Right Handed Pitchers: 18th

The Angels excel against left-handed pitching, ranking 3rd in the league, which could play a significant role against Justin Steele. Conversely, the Cubs struggle more against left-handed pitchers, which might not be as relevant against the right-handed Griffin Canning.

Angels vs Cubs Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Projected Probabilities:

  • Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning): 42.66%
  • Chicago Cubs (Justin Steele): 57.33%

Projected Odds:

  • Angels: +134 (US), 2.34 (Decimal)
  • Cubs: -134 (US), 1.74 (Decimal)

Based on the betting model’s probabilities, the Cubs are favored to win. However, the moneyline value suggests a solid bet on the Angels, given their potential to outperform the odds.

Recommended MLB Pick

Side: Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning)

  • Odds: +164
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.77
  • Confidence: Solid value

Given the analysis, the recommended MLB pick based on our model is to bet on the Los Angeles Angels. The value in the odds makes this a compelling choice for bettors looking for an edge.

Conclusion: Angels vs Cubs Prediction

To wrap up our Angels vs Cubs prediction, remember to use this analysis as a tool to guide your betting decisions. While we recommend backing the Angels for their value, always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. For those interested in betting like a pro, consider exploring sports betting courses and learning how to build your own betting models.

In summary, the Angels vs Cubs prediction suggests a potential upset, with Griffin Canning’s team offering solid betting value against Justin Steele’s favored Cubs. However, the final decision should be made after considering all factors, including the latest odds and any last-minute changes. Happy betting!

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