Dive into the ALONZON MENIFIELD vs CARLOS ULBERG UFC prediction with exclusive insights from our betting model. Menifield shows a slight edge with a 51.04% win probability in our Elo model, while Ulberg leads with 77.07% in the logistic regression. Bet smart with precise, model-backed analysis.


This article delves deep into the ALONZON MENIFIELD vs CARLOS ULBERG UFC prediction, providing a comprehensive breakdown of their upcoming fight on Saturday, May 11, 2024. Using exclusive insights from Eric, a member of the Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass and creator of a renowned UFC betting model, we’ll explore various aspects of the fighters’ statistics, betting odds, and predictions to guide your betting strategies.

Fighter Comparison: Menifield vs Ulberg

Overview of Fighter Stats

  • Striking and Defense:
    Alonzo Menifield boasts a significant strike rate of 3.92 per minute with a striking accuracy of 57%. However, he absorbs 3.51 strikes per minute, reflecting a striking defense of 49%. On the other hand, Carlos Ulberg outshines with a higher strike rate of 7.29 per minute and a slightly better accuracy of 59%. His strike absorption is closely matched at 3.59, but with a superior defense of 52%.
  • Takedown and Ground Game:
    Both fighters show competence in their ground game, with Menifield achieving a takedown average of 0.67 per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 33%, complemented by a robust takedown defense of 75%. Ulberg, while recording fewer takedowns (0.52 average), has a higher accuracy of 75% and matches Menifield in takedown defense.

ELO Ratings

The ELO ratings, which provide a statistical measure of a fighter’s performance against their competition, are closely matched. Alonzon Menifield holds an ELO rating of 1596.07, slightly higher than Carlos Ulberg’s 1588.83, indicating a very tight contest.

Betting Odds and Insights

Current Odds Overview

Currently, Alonzon Menifield is the underdog with decimal odds of 2.78 (US +178), whereas Carlos Ulberg is favored with odds of 1.48 (US -208). Bettors are advised to shop around for the best odds on various sportsbooks before placing their bets.


UFC Betting Model Predictions

Model Analysis

Eric’s UFC betting model, which combines Elo ratings and logistic regression, gives an interesting split. The Elo model slightly favors Menifield with a 51.04% probability of winning, contrary to the logistic regression model, which strongly favors Ulberg with a 77.07% win probability.

Strategic Betting Tips

Given the disparity in the model predictions, Eric recommends a cautious approach. The true strength of the UFC betting model is realized when both the Elo and logistic regression models align, particularly when the odds are between 1.50 and 3.00. In this case, the recommendation leans towards Carlos Ulberg as the more probable victor.


In making your ALONZON MENIFIELD vs CARLOS ULBERG UFC prediction, it’s crucial not to blindly follow any predictions but to use detailed statistical analysis as your guide. Keep abreast of the latest MMA news and updates, always ensuring you are getting the best possible odds and taking advantage of any betting bonuses and promotions. For those keen to elevate their betting strategy, consider delving into sports betting courses that focus on analytical, model-based approaches to gambling.

Whether you are a seasoned bettor or a newcomer to the scene, this fight presents a fascinating matchup with plenty of variables to consider. Make your bets wisely, informed by comprehensive analysis and expert insights.

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