Get the edge with our ALEXANDRE PANTOJA vs STEVE ERCEG UFC prediction. Betting model shows Pantoja at a 61.94% win probability by Elo and 50.75% by logistic regression. Erceg trails with chances of 38.06% and 49.25%. Bet smart with insights from our expert UFC betting analysis!


Welcome to our detailed breakdown and expert analysis for the upcoming UFC clash between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg. This ALEXANDRE PANTOJA vs STEVE ERCEG UFC prediction leverages advanced statistical models and in-depth fight analysis to provide you with the best insights. Our predictions are based on the sophisticated UFC betting model developed by Eric, a revered member of the Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass.

Game Information and Betting Odds

As we gear up for the fight on Saturday, May 4, 2024, let’s look at the current odds from various sportsbooks. Alexandre Pantoja is listed as the favorite with decimal odds of 1.41 (-244 US odds), while Steve Erceg stands as the underdog with odds of 3.05 (+205 US odds). It’s important to remember that odds can fluctuate, so always shop around for the best lines across different sportsbooks.

Fighter Comparison: Key Statistics

Striking and Defense

  • Alexandre Pantoja lands an average of 4.32 significant strikes per minute at a striking accuracy of 49%, but absorbs 3.9 strikes. His striking defense rate is 50%.
  • Steve Erceg, on the other hand, slightly outdoes Pantoja in volume with 4.57 significant strikes per minute at a 48% accuracy and absorbs fewer strikes at 3.64 per minute, with a better defensive rate of 55%.

Ground Game and Takedowns

  • Pantoja shows superiority in the ground game with an average of 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 48%. He defends takedowns at 67% and averages 1 submission attempt per 15 minutes.
  • Erceg is less dominant on the ground, averaging only 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a lower takedown accuracy of 30%. However, his takedown defense is impressive at 77%.

ELO Ratings

  • Pantoja holds an ELO rating of 1589.02 compared to Erceg’s 1504.42, indicating a statistical advantage.

UFC Betting Model Predictions

The betting model shows a strong favor towards Alexandre Pantoja with a 61.94% win probability according to the Elo model and a 50.75% chance according to the logistic regression model. Steve Erceg’s chances are pegged at 38.06% and 49.25% by the Elo and logistic regression models, respectively.

Betting Strategy

The strength of the UFC betting model lies in its dual confirmation strategy—when both the Elo model and logistic regression model agree and the odds are within the strategic range (1.50 – 3.0 in decimal, -200 to +200 in US odds). Given these conditions, the recommended UFC fight pick based on Eric’s analysis is for Alexandre Pantoja to win.


Use this ALEXANDRE PANTOJA vs STEVE ERCEG UFC prediction as a guide, but remember never to follow sports picks blindly. Always use statistical insights in your betting strategy and stay updated with the latest MMA news. Ensure you’re getting the best UFC betting odds and make use of any bonuses and promotions if you decide to place bets on the UFC. If you’re interested in learning to bet like a professional, using analytical sports betting models, and want to gain the knowledge to build your own betting model for long-term success, consider exploring our sports betting courses.

This detailed analysis should equip you with the insights needed to make an informed bet on this thrilling UFC matchup.

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