Get the edge with our ALEX CACERES vs SEAN WOODSON UFC prediction, based on detailed UFC betting model analysis. Model probabilities favor Sean Woodson with a 71.63% chance of winning. Always compare odds and make informed bets for this thrilling UFC matchup.


The upcoming UFC match between Alex Caceres and Sean Woodson is generating considerable excitement among MMA fans and bettors alike. This ALEX CACERES vs SEAN WOODSON UFC prediction delves deep into the fighters’ statistics, match-up analysis, and betting odds to provide a detailed forecast for this encounter. With insights drawn from Eric, a recognized expert from the Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass, this analysis leverages a sophisticated UFC betting model to offer predictions for today’s fight.

Game Information and Betting Odds

Date and Time

  • Event Date: Saturday, May 11, 2024

Fighter Background and Current Odds

  • Alex Caceres:
  • Decimal Odds: 2.65
  • US Odds: +165
  • Sean Woodson:
  • Decimal Odds: 1.53
  • US Odds: -189

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always compare odds across different sportsbooks to secure the best value.

Comparative Analysis of Fighters

Striking and Defense

  • Alex Caceres excels in volume with a significant strike rate of 4.16 per minute and a striking accuracy of 50%. However, he absorbs 2.93 strikes per minute, necessitating a strong defensive skillset, evidenced by his 63% striking defense.
  • Sean Woodson stands out with a higher significant strike rate of 5.4 per minute and an almost similar striking accuracy at 46%. Woodson’s most notable attribute is his superior striking defense, absorbing only 0.4 strikes per minute.

Grappling and Ground Game

  • Both fighters show comparable skills in takedowns, with Caceres averaging 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes and Woodson at 0.58. However, Woodson’s takedown defense at 84% surpasses Caceres’s 64%, potentially giving him an edge in controlling the fight’s pace.

ELO Ratings and UFC Betting Model Insights

  • ELO Ratings:
  • Alex Caceres: 1544.23
  • Sean Woodson: 1573.24
  • The ELO model shows Woodson with a slight advantage, reflecting his recent performances and resilience in the octagon.

UFC Betting Model Predictions

Model Outcomes

  • ELO Model Probability:
  • Alex Caceres: 45.84%
  • Sean Woodson: 54.16%
  • Logistic Regression Model Probability:
  • Alex Caceres: 28.37%
  • Sean Woodson: 71.63%

The logistic regression model, in particular, heavily favors Sean Woodson, indicating a stronger likelihood of his victory based on statistical analysis.

Betting Tips and Recommendations

Recommended UFC Fight Pick

  • Bet on Sean Woodson to win.

Strategy for UFC Betting

Eric’s UFC betting model emphasizes the importance of aligning with the model’s recommendations when both the Elo and logistic regression probabilities favor a fighter within the odds range of -200 and +200. Woodson falls comfortably within this bracket, making him a statistically solid pick for this fight.

Conclusion: ALEX CACERES vs SEAN WOODSON UFC Prediction

In utilizing this ALEX CACERES vs SEAN WOODSON UFC prediction, remember that successful betting involves more than following predictions—it requires an analytical approach, understanding of the statistics, and staying updated with the latest MMA news. Always shop around for the best UFC betting odds, and consider any bonuses and promotions available. For those looking to refine their betting skills or create their own models, exploring advanced sports betting courses could prove invaluable in becoming a long-term winner in sports betting.

This comprehensive prediction, coupled with expert insights and model analysis, provides a robust framework for making informed betting decisions on this exciting UFC matchup.

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