Today I found 3 underdogs, which are based on my MLB betting model, underrated and are considered as +EV bets. Below I will show you my analysis and predicted winning percentages from my spreadsheet as well as my opinion about this games. I’ve been successfully betting on baseball for years, and I’m here to share my today’s best MLB bets with you (check full card here).
My full season MLB betting record: 230-180, +37.30 units with positive closing line value and beating the closing line more than 72% of time. Be sure to check the rest of my today’s best bets and free picks here.
About my MLB Predictions 2022
Each day, throughout baseball season, I analyse MLB games for betting purposes. Every single MLB prediction is based on estimated winning percentages from my private MLB betting model. Most of my bets are moneyline bets and MLB bets against the spread, especially underdog spreads in first five innings. I rarely take over under bets.
My sports betting model winning percentages are turned into the odds and compared with bookmakers’ MLB odds. If there is enough big discrepancy between my odds and their odds, this is potentially a good bet (+EV bet).
Let’s check today’s best 3 MLB underdog bets based on my betting model.
Texas Rangers +109
Game: Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, Tuesday 8/23/2022, 8:40 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: Dane Dunning (TEX) vs German Marquez (COL)
The Rangers have been playing well lately, winning seven of their last 10 games and they will look to continue their three-game win streak against the Colorado Rockies. Based on current bookmakers odds, the market gives Texas Ranger less than 50% of chance to win this game.
However my MLB betting model gives them 56.30% chance of winning this game and predicted fair line of -129 on Rangers.
Let’t take a look at pitching matchup first
Texas will send Dane Dunning to the mound, who has a 3-6 record and 4.06 ERA. He’ll be up against Rockies starter German Marquez, who has a 6-10 record and 5.05 ERA. Despite different ERA, I don’t see any big advantage on any side here. If we check advanced pitching metrics, both pitchers have similar numbers and the support of the bullpen late in the game will be very important. Despite Rockies had a day off, they still have the worst bullpen in baseball, so the Rangers will have an advantage late in the game. Texas Rangers bullpen posted ERA of 1.04 in last 5 games, while Rockies bullpen is struggling with the ERA of 6.52 during this stretch.
Texas is better overall team, they are playing well right now and I’ll take them as an underdog in this game, which supposed to be a very close one.
Cleveland Indians +133
Game: Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres, Tuesday 8/23/2022, 9:40 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Civale (CLE) at Mike Clevinger (SDP)
The Cleveland Guardians will take on the San Diego Padres Tuesday night in what should be a great matchup. Both teams are fighting for playoff spots and need every win they can get.
On the mound for the Guardians will be Aaron Civale, who at the first look is struggling this season with ERA of 5.63.
But ERA doesn’t tell us the whole picture about pitching performance, and if we look closer, I believe Civale is actually the better pitcher in this game. His SIERA (3.63), xERA (4.27), FiP (3.71), and xFiP (3.76) are all better metrics than Clevinger’s this season. Clevinger has a SIERA of 4.31 this season, along with an xERA of 4.07, FiP of 4.12, and xFiP of 4.44.
So while ERA doesn’t tell the whole story, it looks like we have a very close pitching matchup on our hands. It looks like a close game, where bullpens will decide the game.
The Guardians’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season. They have a 3.30 ERA, which is the 6th best in the majors. The Padres’ bullpen has also been very strong this season. They have a 3.70 ERA, which is the 12th best in baseball. And if we check my betting model and my bullpen rankings, I have Guardians 5th best Padres 12th best in MLB.
When we compare overall pitching in this game, it’s clear that both teams have a lot of talent. However, the Guardians have a slight edge.
When it comes to hitting and current performance, I don’t see any big advantage on any side. San Diego won only 2 games out of 4 at home against the worst team in the league – Washington Nationals. And even those two wins were not convincing (both 2-1 result).
My betting model has this game as a flip coin game, but with +133 on Guardians I think we have a value on the road underdog.
Oakland Athletics +128
Game: Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics, Tuesday 8/23/2022, 9:40 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez (MIA) vs Zach Logue (OAK)
The Miami Marlins will take on the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday at the Oakland Coliseum. They beat Oakland in the first game of the series yesterday and will look to do the same tonight against Zach Logue. Oakland is the worst team in the American league and I don’t give them better chances of winning this game, but this is not the same as finding +EV bets. Because even if the Miami Marlins are a much better team and should be able to win this game easily, I think that Marlins are little bit overrated here.
When it comes to pitching, Marlins will have the advantage…
Pablo Lopez will get the start for the Marlins, while Zach Logue will take the mound for the Athletics. Lopez is 7-8 with a 3.83 ERA and 131 strikeouts, while Logue is 3-7 with a 6.35 ERA and 31 strikeouts.
They are also a better team…
Oakland is 45-78 overall and 19-41 at home, while Miami is 53-69 overall and 28-36 in road games.
However, Miami Marlins are not great on the road and especially not against left handed pitchers. They score only 2.09 runs per game versus left handed pitchers on the road and in their last 10 games they are producing only 2.25 runs per game. Even Oakland is hitting better – 3.54 runs in last 10 games. Despite Miami will have pitching advantage, at least at the start of the game, I think that this is a very close game at the end and based on my MLB betting model, Oakland is a flip coin bet and at +128 a small value bet too.
What you should know before you bet on underdogs?
Betting on underdogs can be a profitable strategy, even if the winning percentage is below 50%. Many gamblers find it difficult, because most of the time they focus on how to win the next game. But the key to successful betting is not about picking winners in the next game, but constantly finding mispriced opportunities on the betting market.
The underdog usually has less chance to win than the favorite. However, this doesn’t mean that betting on underdogs is always a losing proposition. If there is value in the odds (i.e. the probability of the underdog winning is greater than what is implied by the odds), then betting on underdogs can be profitable.
There is no guarantee that the underdog will win in this particular game, but constantly betting on +EV. And doing this over and over again. Please keep in mind that betting on underdogs is always long-term strategy. My average odds this season, betting on MLB, is +102 (2.02).
Where to bet?
When it comes to baseball betting, finding the best possible odds is crucial. That’s why having multiple sportsbook accounts is a smart move. That way, you can compare odds and bet on the one that offers the most favorable payout.
Of course, you can pick any sportsbook you want and do your own research. But to make things easier, here are some of the best sportsbooks for baseball betting:
- Bovada – If you bet in the United Stats, Bovada is always a good choice. The best way to win their bonus with sports betting is explained here.
- Betnow – Another option for US bettors and they currently run a MLB handicapping contest with $10,000 prize. Find out how to win $10k here.
- Nitrobetting – If you want to bet 100% anonymously with bitcoins, then this site is great. Learn more.
- Cloudbet – Probably the best crypto-focused bookmaker right now. Review here.
- Pinnacle – Sharpest odds on the market. For professionall sports bettors! Check pros and cons here.
Each sportsbook has its own strengths and weaknesses, so it’s important to shop around and find the one that suits your needs the most.